Research On The Dependence Structure Of Investment Interest Rateof P2P Background Platforms

In recent years,the Internet finance industry has become a huge role in China’s capital market,and the P2 P industry,which is a major category of the Internet finance industry,has also developed rapidly.Since 2015,P2 P platforms with high interest rates and attractive to investors have emerged.These platforms can be divided into four backgrounds: Fengtou,Shangshi,Guozi,and Minying.The interest rates changes differently between different backgrounds.The P2 P industry urgently needs an environment that can help it release its potential,but from its current status,there are still many problems such as platform running and failure.The main reason for this is the high interest rate of the industry;therefore,we must strengthen the control of interest rates to create a good environment for P2 P development.For the analysis of interest rates in the P2 P industry,many scholars have explored the external influence factors and changes of the overall interest rate in the P2 P industry.However,there are differences in the dependence structure between different backgrounds,so each influencing factor may have a different effect on these structures.Then the impact on the background interest rate is also different.At the same time,as most experts in this field have said,the interest rate cut policy is the most important policy to address the problem of excessive interest rates.This policy has impact of directly reducing the interest rate of online lending in the P2 P industry and reducing the interest rate of other industries in the financial markets such as banks.The P2 P industry interest rate combines these two aspects to play a role;but from the actual performance,after the interest rate cut,the investment interest rate of the P2 P platform will also be much higher than the bank,and near the implementation of the interest rate reduction policy,the industry’s investment interest rate did not fluctuate significantly.It shows that the mechanism of the interest rate reduction policy is relatively complicated,and the reason for the poor effect may be that the policy has caused the dependence structure of the two platforms to change.In view of the above analysis,this article starts from the research on the dependence structure and its changing laws between the various backgrounds of the P2 P platform,and explores the impact of interest rate reduction policies on the dependence structure of investment rates,and what other policies will affect it.Specifically,it is mainly divided into two parts: the first step is to select the rates on investment of the four background platforms in the P2 P industry,use the non-linear Copula tool to model its dependence structure,and observe and compare the dependence structures between different platforms.Further introduce the corresponding time-varying Copula function,observe and compare the time-varying dependence structures of each group.In the first part of the work,the following conclusions were drawn from this study:(1)There are differences in the dependence structures between different platforms,except for the Shangshi department and the Guozi department,the Shangshi department and the Minying department,and the Fengtou department and the Guozi department,others have tail correlations;most of the tail correlations are symmetric,only the Guozi department and Minying department are asymmetric.(2)From the perspective of the standard deviation or range of the time-varying correlation coefficient,the Fengtou department and Minying department has changed the most,then Shangshi department and the Guozi department is relatively the most stable.After the introduction of the time-varying Copula,it found that the dependence structures will change.According to the time-varying correlation diagram,intuitive guessing that it may be related to the interest rate reduction policy,and there may be other policy events that will affect the dependence structures.Starting from this,the second step is to examine the groups based on the above-mentioned establishment of the time-varying correlation structure by alternately verifying the forward CUSUM change point test and the reverse verification based on time-varying structural equations to verify the results of the change point test,exploring whether the dependence structures will change with interest rate cuts and other policies.This article draws the following main conclusions:(1)The interest rate cut policy has a significant impact on dependence structures,but the impact of the first interest rate cut policy is significantly greater than the second one;the first interest rate cut policy significantly affects the dependence structure of the Fengtou department and Shangshi department,the Fengtou department and Minying department,the Shangshi department and Guozi department;the second one only has a significant impact on the Shangshi department and Guozi department.(2)In addition to the interest rate reduction policy,information disclosure,platform self-examination,filing review,and small-medium-sized platform supervision policies will also significantly affect the relevant structure of the platform background.In addition to the interest rate reduction policy,there are also information disclosure policy will affect the dependence structure of the Shangshi and the Guozi department;the platform compliance self-inspection policy will affect the dependence structure of the Shangshi and the Guozi department;the platform filing review system will affect the dependence structure of the Guozi and the Minying department;the strict management of small and medium platform policies will have an impact on the dependence structure of the Fengtou and the Shangshi department.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,this article makes the following suggestions:(1)Although the interest rate reduction policy has a certain effect on the regulation of interest rates,the policy may cause changes in the dependence structures between different platforms,so the effect is not ideal,the single interest rate reduction policy may not be the best strategy.Because of this,this paper also finds that several other policies also affect the dependence structures,so it is recommended to adopt a combination of multiple policies rather than a single interest rate reduction strategy.(2)This article finds five types of policies.In terms of attributes,the above policies are all types of self-regulation by the platform,so the platform’s active regulation may be more efficient than passive interest rate reduction.Therefore,it is recommended that the regulators combine the platform’s proactive self-regulation policies with hard interest rate control policies.(3)Due to the different changes in the dependence structures between different backgrounds,when investors consider investment strategies,when P2 P platforms adjust interest rates,and when regulators regulate the entire P2 P industry.They need to consider the type of platform background,the background of important dependence relationships,and whether the recent policy will significantly affect the dependence structure.