Research On The Impact Of Population Ageing On China’s Economic Growth

With economic development and continuous increase in life expectancy,China has become one of the countries with the largest number of ageing populations and the fastest growth rate in the world.The theoretical community has reached consensus on the conclusion that population ageing affects economic growth,but it is still unclear how the population ageing affects economic growth.The main reasons for the differences are the differences in research perspectives and selection variables,or the analysis of the effects of population aging on economic growth from a single variable such as labor,consumption,and savings;or considering these single variables together,but lacking systematic and comprehensive analysis.While fully absorbing current research results,this article aims to find a channel mechanism for the effects of population aging on China’s economic growth,and assess the impact of population aging on China’s economic growth.In the specific research process,along the logical idea of " questions raised-Analysis of mechanism of action-General equilibrium research-Policy recommendations ",based on a computable general equilibrium model that introduces the labor supply module,consumption module,and savings rate module,to study the channel and comprehensive effects of population ageing on economic growth by considering the three impact channels of labor supply,consumption,and savings rate.On this basis,it also quantitatively analyzes the effect of policies to actively respond to population ageing,that is,comprehensively examines the impact of population relaxation and human capital investment on China’s economic growth and structure,in order to quantitatively evaluate the changes in China’s macro economy brought by related policies in the context of population ageing.The study found that population ageing has different effects on economic growth through labor supply,household savings and consumption.The specific conclusions are as follows:(1)Population ageing has a negative effect on economic growth through labor supply and savings rate;population ageing has a positive effect on economic growth through consumption,but not as significant as the negative effects brought by labor supply and savings rate;Taken together,the long-term population ageing has brought negative pressure on economic growth,China’s economy to 2050 will decline by 5.6 percentage points relative to the base period.(2)The relaxation of population policies and the strengthening of investment in human capital can significantly stimulate the economy and alleviate the negative pressure brought by the ageing of the population.In this case,the decline in China’s economy to 2050 will decrease by 3.4 percentage points relative to the base period,compared with the situation where there is no policy background,the decline in economic growth has been significantly reduced.Therefore,fully tapping the potential of the current demographic dividend,creating a new demographic dividend,and gradually turning to the use of new sources of economic growth are the fundamental ways to deal with population ageing in the post-Lewis transition period.