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Research On The Influence Of Population Change On Economic Growth In Guangxi

Posted on:2021-02-15Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y GaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2507306272982039Subject:Population, resource and environmental economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Population problem is a long-term,overall and strategic problem that our country is facing now.According to the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,it is necessary to "promote the matching of fertility policy and relevant economic and social policies,and strengthen the research on population development strategy",which puts forward new goals and requirements for China’s population development.In the new era,further planning the relationship between population and economy is not only related to economic and social development,but also to people’s well-being and social stability.Population development should not only keep relative stability in population quantity,but also coordinate the comprehensive development of population structure and population quality.Guangxi is located in the southwest of China.Since the reform and opening up,the economy has made great progress,but the per capita GDP is behind the national level.At the same time,the economic growth rate in the past 10 years is facing the trend of decreasing fluctuation,so it is urgent to tap new development momentum..As the most basic and active factor affecting economic growth,population factor plays a key role in the coordinated development of regional society and sustainable and healthy development of economy,no matter in terms of total amount,structure,migration status and population quality.It is found that the total population,population structure and population migration in Guangxi restrict the transformation and upgrading of regional economy and the sustainable improvement of economic growth power to a certain extent,which has a negative impact on the high-quality economic development of Guangxi.Therefore,a comprehensive survey of the current situation of population and economic development in Guangxi,a solution to the problems,and a further exploration of the specific impact of population development on economic growth will help to play a positive role of population factors on economic growth,solve thecurrent dilemma of population and economic development in Guangxi,and promote the coordinated interaction between population and economy in Guangxi,and achieve high-quality economic development significance.On the basis of combing the previous research theories and documents,this paper uses the data of Guangxi statistical yearbook,China Statistical Yearbook,census and so on to analyze the characteristics of population change in Guangxi and its impact on economic growth.This paper compares the population change of Guangxi with that of other provinces and cities by using the horizontal and vertical comparison methods,and finds that the population development is faced with such problems as the decrease of the total increase,the shortage of high-level talents,the increasingly serious aging of the population,the shortage of reserve labor,the unreasonable employment structure and the serious loss of labor.At the same time,it also analyzes the current situation and characteristics of Guangxi’s economic development,which shows that the economic growth rate is gradually decreasing,the industrial structure upgrading is slow,and the level of opening up is not enough.On this basis,the economic growth is divided into three elements by using the growth accounting method,namely,the increase of labor productivity,the increase of labor utilization efficiency and the increase of the number of working age population.The change of each contribution element and its contribution to economic growth in1990-2017 are investigated.The whole period is divided into three stages: 1991-2000,2001-2010 and 2011-2017.The main conclusions are as follows:First,in the whole investigation stage,the growth of labor productivity is the main driving force of economic growth,and its average contribution rate to economic growth reaches 91.21%.However,from the perspective of change trend,from the second stage to the third stage,the average growth rate of labor productivity decreases from 11.62% to 9.66%,with a decrease rate of 1.96%.And with the successive decline since 2012,it can be seen that labor students The growth of production rate has entered the fatigue period,and the growth rate will further slow down in the future,with less and less pulling effect on economic growth.Second,in 1991-2000 and 2001-2010,the contribution of labor utilization efficiency to economic growth has always been positive,but after 2010,labor productivity has been negative for five years,and its contribution to real GDP growth has been reduced to-4.57%,down 7.94% compared with the previous stage,and the average growth rate has also been reduced from 0.42% to-0.43%,bringing down theeconomic growth rate by 0.85%,According to the trend of employment and working age population,the growth rate of labor utilization efficiency will be further reduced in the future.Third,the growth rate of the working age population in the three stages is 2.01%,0.43% and 0.17% respectively,which gradually reduces the role of promoting economic growth.From the perspective of contribution rate,the contribution rate of population factors to economic growth in 2011-2017 is only 1.81%,15.43% lower than 17.24% in 1991-2000,and 1.64% lower than 3.45% in 2001-2010.According to the results of population forecast,the annual average growth rate of population elements will be reduced to 0.09% in 2017-2022,while it will reach a negative value in 2025-2030,which means that the contribution of population elements to economic growth will change from positive to negative.Fourth,by further decomposing the contribution of population factors to economic growth,it can be found that in 1990-2017,the pull value of population size,i.e.the total population,to economic growth was 0.55%,and the pull value of population structure,i.e.the proportion of working age population,to economic growth was 0.4%,compared with the larger contribution of population size.58% of the contribution factor of working age population growth can be explained by the growth of total population,42% by the change of population structure.Based on the research results,this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to promote the coordinated development of population and economy in Guangxi.First,promote population growth and increase the supply of working age population;second,actively improve the level of employment and increase the efficiency of labor utilization;third,accelerate the transformation and upgrading of economic development and improve labor productivity.
Keywords/Search Tags:Population change, Economic growth, Labor utilization efficiency, Historical growth accounting
PDF Full Text Request
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