The Impact Of Household Population Structure On Housing Demand

The housing problem has always been a problem closely related to people’s livelihood.Housing is a necessity for people and a rigid need for life.As far as the current economic conditions are concerned,owning a house is not a difficult goal.Everyone dreams of a comfortable living environment,and everyone is working hard to realize this dream.Therefore,there is a very close relationship between housing and people.After the founding of the People’s Republic of China,taking into account the current social situation and other reasons,our government implemented a welfare distribution system in kind on housing.Then in 1998,the government no longer implemented this system,and the real estate buying and selling rights were led by the market.Since then,China’s real estate industry has entered a period of rapid development,resulting in China’s housing prices always staying high.And population has always been the main factor affecting housing demand.Compared with the stage of rapid population growth in the 1990 s,in recent years,China’s population has gradually shown a state of "low birth rate,low natural growth rate,and low mortality rate".The phenomenon of aging population structure and the miniaturization of family size have become more and more obvious.Moreover,the ratio of men to women is imbalanced,and the female population is lower than the male population.Under such demographic characteristics and the high level of population demand for housing,it is of great significance to explore the relationship between housing demand and family demographics and the impact of the latter on the former.Many experts in academia at home and abroad have analyzed and researched the relationship between population structure and housing demand from different perspectives.They are mainly divided into the following three perspectives: the perspective of the natural structure of the population,the perspective of the social and economic structure of the population,and the perspective of the spatial structure of the population.Most experts start from the macro perspective of the above three perspectives,and few experts conduct in-depth research based on the micro perspective.Based on this,in order to make up for the lack of theoretical research on the micro-perspective,this paper uses the 2017 China Household Financial Survey(CHFS)data as research materials to construct a Probit model,and in-depth discusses the impact of household structure on housing demand from micro-data and micro-perspectives with the help of the Tobit model,the relationship between household structure and the proportion of specific housing assets is analyzed in detail.After a series of empirical analysis of the model,this paper has obtained the following three conclusions: first,the dependency ratio of the elderly and the dependency ratio of the children have a significant negative impact on the willingness of the family to newly build / purchase a new house;second,the dependency ratio of the elderly to the family housing The asset share has no significant effect,and the child support ratio has a significant positive impact on the share of household housing assets.Third,family size and the number of boys under the age of 14 in households have a significant positive impact on household willingness to build / purchase new homes,and have no significant effect on the share of household housing assets.Under the background of severe ageing,low fertility and family size under the background of family structure,relevant departments in China should pay attention to a series of effects of changes in family population structure on real estate when formulating and implementing related housing policies,and use the changes in population structure to promote Real estate progress.Therefore,the recommendations of this article are as follows: First,according to the characteristics of the serious aging of the population structure,from the perspective of the aging population,a “silver-haired house” can be constructed to meet the needs of the elderly and create more suitable residences for their elderly Environment;second,at this stage,China has liberalized the second child policy,and the government encourages families to have second children.With the promotion of this policy,there may be more and more families of four in the future.Regarding the possible changes in the future structure of this population,real estate should also seize it,and change the type of houses when building residential areas to meet the needs of different family structures.So how to formulate a housing construction plan based on changes in the population structure of the family and build a house that can meet the needs of diverse families is also a topic worthy of research at the moment.