Analysis Of The Impact Of Air Pollution On Fertility In China

Since the introduction of"One Child Policy"into China’s basic national policy,China’s fertility rate has begun to decline rapidly.The implementation of the plan has achieved remarkable results and eased the population pressure and economic pressure in the development process of China.However,with the rapid economic development,the people’s birth concept has changed,the family planning policy has continued to be implemented,and China’s fertility rate has fallen below the world average,bringing a series of social and economic impacts such as population aging and labor shortage.There are many studies at home and abroad on the impact of economic development,social welfare,national education level,national policies and other factors on fertility.In terms of the impact of air pollution,through pathological research abroad,it has been found that many indicators that cause air pollution,such as PM2.5-PM10 particulate matter,NO₂ and other nitrogen oxides,and benzene,have a certain relationship with regional population reproductive disorders.Therefore,exploring the impact of air pollution on regional fertility has certain social significance.The research study 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2010.Examination of the spatial correlation in air pollution indicators such as PM2.5 and sulfur dioxide and the total fertility rate in each year found that both have a spatial agglomeration effect.At the same time,through study of the overall spatial effect and local spatial effect,it was found that most of the provinces have lower fertility rates and cluster with those provinces which the same lower fertility rate;on the contrary,some higher fertility provinces have clustered.At the same time,the fertility rate in the southwest is generally high,while the fertility rate in the northeast and central China is more lower.After checking that there is a spatial correlation between the air pollution index and the fertility rate,we began to construct a spatiotemporal weight matrix measurement model.Since the research data is panel data,and the ordinary spatial weight matrix cannot fuse time information,the model needs to use the spatio-temporal weight matrix.By studying many methods of constructing the space-time weight matrix at home and abroad,comparing the spatial correlation of 0-1 matrix,geographic distance matrix,and economic matrix,the traditional adjacent Queen matrix is used as the spatial weight matrix,and the two of the Moran index under different periods are used.The two ratios are the time weight matrix.The Kronecker product is used to combine the two weight matrices to generate the spatiotemporal weight matrix.Through the LM test（lag）and LM test（error）tests and the corresponding Robust LM test test to determine the fit of the spatial lag model（SLM/SAR）and spatial error model（SEM）in the data,the results are it is good.At the same time,in order to further determine the fitting effects of the three models,the spatial autocorrelation model,spatial error model and spatial Doberman model were established by using air pollution-related indicators,per capita disposable income,education level,medical level,and average house price as explanatory variables.And carry on the parameter test and the goodness of model fitting,choose the suitable model.At the same time,find the direct effect of the explanatory variable in the region and the indirect effect on the neighboring region,and the final total effect.Analyze the impact of air pollution related indicators and other variables on air pollution.The study found that in the air pollution index,the concentration of PM2.5played a role in promoting fertility.It shows that the economic impact of PM2.5exceeds the environmental and physiological impacts.Air pollution reflects a better economic development,attracting more people to work,and providing more employment opportunities for local residents to settle down and increase the local fertility rate.Therefore,in the period from 2006 to 2010,the economic benefits of air pollution outweighed the physiological impact and the attractiveness of the good environment.Other air pollution indicators failed the test.The increase in the level of economic development reflected in per capita disposable income has increased the cost of living and thus suppressed fertility.The housing price has a promoting effect on the local fertility rate,and the local housing price has a partial promoting effect on the increase of the fertility rate,but the promotion effect is not significant.The increase in the level of higher education of the population reflects the increasing number of women in higher education,which has led to more women entering the labor market.And the pressure of work and life on fertility will continue to increase,resulting in a restraining effect on fertility.In this paper,through predecessors’research on influencing factors of fertility rate,we added sulfur dioxide,PM2.5 and other air pollution related indicators to study the factors affecting fertility rate.And through the space-time weight matrix to add spatial and temporal geographic information,from a new perspective to study fertility.At the same time,due to the difficulty of obtaining fertility data in various provinces and cities,most of the predecessors used fertility rate instead of fertility rate to study the problem when studying the influencing factors of fertility rate,and the data of fertility rate ignored the impact of women of childbearing age.This article directly studies the influencing factors with fertility data and reduces certain errors.Taking air pollution,education policies,and women’s reproductive rights at work as the starting point,policy recommendations for raising the fertility rate are proposed.