Study On The Impact Of Non-agricultural Employment And Land Transfer On Farmers’ Willingness To Land Reallocation At The Current And When The Second Period Of Contract Expires

Since the second round of contract,the state has begun to implement a series of measures to stabilize the policy of contract rights,which has played a positive role in curbing land reallocation,reducing land fragmentation and promoting farming management in scale.However,due to demographic changes,farmers’ demands for land reallocation have continuously existed.Under the policy of "no land reallocation",farmers’ willingness to land reallocation is becoming stronger.In order to alleviate the two dilemmas mentioned above,especially in the context of the "three rights division" system and "the second period of contract will be extended for another 30 years" proposed in the“19th National Congress",it is vital to investigate both the farmers’ willingness to land reallocation and potential factors currently and when the second period of contract expires,and then find the countermeasures to resolve the conflicts between contract rights policy and farmers’ appeal for land reallocation.The existing documents have carried out enormous research on farmers’ willingness to land reallocation,mainly focused on the current situation and the potential factors that may exert an impact.However,it failed to take the study of key variables(ie,non-agricultural employment,land transfer)into account at some important time points(ie,when the second round of contracting expires).Therefore,based on the document reviews and theoretical rudiments,this paper sorts out the influence mechanism of non-agricultural employment and village land transfer on farmers’ willingness to land reallocation.It taps into the survey data typical of a whole nation—845 households within 176 villages in 8 provinces(municipalities)to construct a ordered Logit and Logit measurement model,which can verify how the non-agricultural employment of farmers,village land transfer and other controllable variables affect the farmers’ willingness to land reallocation now and after the second period of contract.It also makes comparative analysis of the differences in order to provide recommendations for the smooth promotion of stable contract rights policy.The results of this study show that:(1)the proportion of sample households who want to adjust the land is 34.76%,while the proportion of sample households who want to adjust the land when the second period of contract expires increases to 57.85%,and the farmers have more demands for land reallocation.(2)Non-agricultural employment of farmers has a significantly negative impact on current periods and when the second period of contract expires.(3)The village land transfer has no impact on the willingness to land reallocation currently and has a significantly positive impact on the willingness to land reallocation when the second period of contract expires.(4)In terms of policy implementation:The duration of the latest land reallocation has a significant negative impact on current periods and when the second period of contract expires;The second period of contract(Whether to obtain the second round contract certificate)has a positive impact on current periods and when the second period of contract expires;In terms of farmers’ policy cognition,the understanding of the "19th National Congress" policy by farmers has a positive impact on the willingness to land reallocate when the second period of contract expires;The welfare judgment of the farmers on the "Nineteenth National Congress" policy have a negative impact on the willingness to land reallocate when the second period of contract expires.In order to smooth promotion of stable contract rights policies(especially when the second period of contract expires),this study provides the following recommendations:(1)Clarify the contradiction between people and land in villages,fully respect the farmers’willingness to land reallocation,determine land reallocation policies when the second period of contract expires.(2)Broaden non-agricultural employment channels and increase farmers’ non-agricultural income.(3)Accelerate the construction of land transfer market and promote its healthy development;Try to implement joint-stock contract right,with equity allocation instead of land adjustment.(4)Carry the policy of contract rights out,step up its propagation and education work,and raise farmers’ awareness of the policies to win their buy-in.