Evaluation And Prediction Of The Development Level Of The New Generation Information Technology Industry In Shanxi Province

The new generation of information technology industry is one of the seven strategic emerging industries,and also the key force to promote the transformation and development of Shanxi Province.It is the premise to promote the structural adjustment and development planning of the traditional industry in Shanxi Province to accurately evaluate the development level of the new generation information technology industry in Shanxi Province and grasp the characteristics and weak links of the industrial development.This paper collects 12 index data of 30 provinces except Tibet in mainland China.This paper constructs a new generation of information technology industry development evaluation index system from four aspects of industrial scale,technology level,economic benefit and innovation coordination ability,and calculates the comprehensive scores of each province by using principal component method,and sorts 30 provinces.According to the ranking results,this paper analyzes the development of the new generation information technology industry in China.In addition,in order to further understand the overall development level of the new generation of information technology in China,this paper uses the system clustering method to cluster the analysis,which can cluster 30 provinces into five categories.Guangdong,Jiangsu and Beijing are respectively divided into one class,and the advantages of the three are slightly different in the industrial development,but they are all at the leading level in the country.The seven provinces represented by Shanghai and Zhejiang constitute the fourth category,representing the middle and top level of industrial development.The remaining 20 provinces are grouped into one category,representing the areas with relatively backward industrial development.The results of the above analysis show that the development of the new generation of information technology industry in China is extremely unbalanced.This paper analyzes the development of Shanxi new generation information technology industry from three aspects: national ranking,relevant policies and the development of cities.In order to understand the future development trend of the industry,this paper forecasts the development level of the new generation information technology industry in Shanxi Province from two aspects: electronic information manufacturing and software industry.Firstly,the main business income of electronic information manufacturing and software industry in Shanxi Province is predicted by two basic models GM(1,1)and ARIMA.Through comparative analysis,it is found that ARIMA model is more accurate for the selected data.Then,the paper proposes a combination prediction model based on the HP filter decomposition.The prediction results show that the combination model has higher accuracy in predicting the development level of the new generation information technology industry in Shanxi Province.Finally,the forecast results of the sub industry are weighted and the comprehensive forecast results of the new generation information technology industry in Shanxi Province are obtained.In the whole paper,Shanxi province lags behind other provinces in labor supply,industrial integration,talent introduction and information security,which greatly restricts the development of the new generation of information technology industry.The number of small and medium-sized enterprises is relatively small,and their development is limited due to the reasons of capital and policy.Therefore,in view of these problems,this paper puts forward some suggestions to Shanxi provincial government from the aspects of infrastructure construction,policy and regulations improvement and talent introduction,hoping to promote the development of the new generation of information technology industry in Shanxi Province.