Measurement Of The Proportion Of Middle Income Group In China And Its Influencing Factors

The research on Residents’ income has always been a hot issue for scholars,and in recent years,the research on middle-income groups is favored: on the one hand,the rapid and high-quality development of China’s economy has greatly improved the income of all people,and the income structure of residents has not been changed.On the other hand,2020 is the closing year for China to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and the 13 th five year plan.It is also the decisive year for achieving the first Centennial goal,and it is also the year for achieving the goal of poverty alleviation.Whether the residents’ income level and quality of life have been improved is also an intuitive indicator to test the development results.Therefore,the relevant research on middle-income groups has practical and theoretical significance.The research focus of this paper is to analyze the changes and influencing factors of the proportion of middle-income groups in China,and the definition standard of the proportion of middle-income groups has not been unified among scholars at home and abroad.Therefore,based on the research status and problems,this paper first summarizes the definition criteria,and selects 0.5-1.5 times median as the definition method of middle-income group in this paper.Then,based on the annual total income data of cgss2010,2011,2012,2013,2015 and 2017,this paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis of the overall income status of Chinese residents from the national,urban and rural levels,It is found that the income distribution of residents in China shows a significant right deviation and peak distribution,and shows regional and urbanrural differences.Then we use the kernel function to describe the distribution of income density of the whole country,urban and rural residents.We find that with the change of time,the center of the distribution curve of the three has shifted to the right,and tends to be flat.On this basis,we use the kernel density estimation method to calculate the proportion of middle-income groups in China’s national,urban and rural areas,and finally get the size of middle-income groups in China.It is found that the proportion of middle-income groups in China’s national,urban and rural areas shows a declining trend from 2010 to 2017.The proportion of this group in urban areas is higher than that in the national and rural areas,while the proportion of this group in rural areas is lower than that in the national and urban areas.In the analysis of the factors that affect the proportion of middle-income groups in China,this paper analyzes from the macro and micro aspects.In terms of macro factors,we continue to decompose the macro factors into economic growth effect,income distribution effect and standard line change effect based on the income distribution obtained by kernel density estimation.We find that the economic growth effect has a significant positive impact on the change of the proportion of China’s middle-income groups,which indicates that with the development of economy,the income of residents is increasing,the proportion of middle-income groups also increased.The impact of income distribution effect is negative,and the absolute value of the statistic is the largest,which means that there is a certain unfair phenomenon in China’s income distribution at this stage,which is the main reason for the decrease of the proportion of middleincome groups in China.As for the standard line change effect,it has the least impact.This is because with the continuous improvement of economic level,the income of residents is also increasing,which is bound to cause the definition standard of middleincome group to change.Therefore,the impact of the standard line change on the proportion change of middle-income group is limited.In the analysis of micro influencing factors,this paper uses quantile regression to analyze the influencing factors on the 0.1,0.25,0.5,0.75 and 0.9 quantiles of national,urban and rural residents’ income,and finds that for the whole country,the four variables of province,urban and rural areas,gender and education background are the most important factors affecting the middle-income group,while the urban areas are the province,gender and education background.As for rural areas,they are province,gender,education background and health level.Finally,on the basis of the data of the proportion of middle-income group in China calculated by kernel density,the proportion of middle-income group in China is predicted by using the grey system GM(1,1)model.By comparing the predicted proportion of 2010,2011,2012,2013,2015 and 2017 with the results of nuclear density calculation,it is found that the model has high accuracy.On this basis,the prediction results of the proportion of middle-income groups in China in the next three periods are given.It is found that the proportion of middle-income groups in China will be further reduced,but the change range of urban proportion is much smaller than that of rural.It may be that there is a significant gap between urban and rural development,which leads to different income levels.In addition,the increasingly serious aging and population loss in rural areas lead to the expansion of this difference.Therefore,on the basis of the above research conclusions,this paper believes that if we want to achieve the benign development of China’s middle-income groups,we should first increase policy support,encourage local governments to change the mode of development,realize industrial transfer and upgrading,so as to achieve the goal of balancing urban and rural development,regional development and narrowing the development gap;at the same time,we should improve the income distribution pattern,and use the relevant macro-control measures Finally,workers are the main body of social participation.Therefore,as the most likely to enter the middle-income group,low-income workers should also do a good job in career planning,constantly improve their own quality,and strive to improve their income.