The Influence Of Aging Population On China’s Export Trade Structure

With the growth of the global population and the improvement of the health service system,the world population structure is generally facing an aging trend.China is not only the largest developing country in the world,but also the country with the largest aging population.The aging of the population has caused an increase in labor costs,which has weakened China’s advantage of traditional cheap labor,thus affecting my country’s export trade structure,and thus my country’s economic development.Therefore,in the new era of China’s economic development,it is important to study the impact of population aging on the structure of export trade.This article uses the proportion of exports of high-tech products to measure China’s trade structure,and analyzes the theoretical mechanism of the impact of population aging on the export trade structure from the perspectives of labor costs,human capital,and consumption structure.The study found that the aging of the population has brought about the rise of labor costs,the accumulation of human capital and the adjustment of the consumption structure,which is conducive to the optimization and upgrading of the export trade structure.In addition,the realistic analysis of population aging and export trade structure concludes that my country’s population aging has accelerated in recent years and the export trade structure has been optimized.Using my country’s provincial balanced panel data from 2005 to 2018,analyze the impact of population aging on China’s export trade structure.With the help of individual fixed effects model,the overall effect of population aging on the export trade structure is discussed,and the mechanism test model is established to verify the existence of the mediation effect of labor cost,human capital and consumption structure.The empirical results are consistent with the theoretical analysis conclusions.Finally,the benchmark model and the mechanism test model are tested for robustness,which verifies the robustness of the empirical results.The analysis of heterogeneity in terms of population aging degree and economic development level has been carried out.The study found that in terms of the optimization effect of population aging on the export trade structure,the level of shallow aging is better than other levels,and the western region is better than others.The central and eastern regions,and partly restrained the eastern regions.Based on the research conclusions and combined with my country’s national conditions,in order to cultivate the population quality dividend and optimize the export trade structure,the following four countermeasures are proposed: the first is to increase investment in education to enhance human capital;the second is to provide policy support to stimulate innovative research and development;the third is to improve the social security system to promote industrial upgrading;the fourth is to strengthen regional coordination to promote industrial gradient transfer.