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Empirical Research On The Impact Of Population Age Structure Change On The Housing Price Fluctuations

Posted on:2021-08-23Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:M B SunFull Text:PDF
GTID:2507306551994109Subject:Master of business administration
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As one of the most important industries of current Chinese social economy,real estate has a very significant influence on the development of the entire national economy.From the perspective of the development history of real estate in China,since the implementation of commercial housing marketization in the real estate market in 1998,China’s real estate has been growing rapidly in merely 20 years.In recent years,with the continuous stability of China’s economy and the increasingly strong investment demand of people,housing prices across the country have experienced rapid rises and violent fluctuations,Greatly affecting people’s demand for settlement.Whereas,"People",as direct buyers of commercial housing,cannot affect the price of housing.From the perspective of the residents themselves,the age and family structure as well as income have all been the influence factors of the housing price.For a long time in the past,the "demographic dividend",which represents the majority of young and middle-aged people,contributed to economic development and stimulated housing prices.With the gradual disappearance of the "demographic dividend",the advancement of the second child policy,and the aging society,The booming real estate driven by demographic dividend may soon be over.What effect will the change of population age structure have on the future housing price? Will government adopt laissez-faire policies to let housing price fluctuate drastically or introduce stricter macro-control policies according to different conditions? There are still different voices in academia about these issues which play an important role in the future development of the real estate industry and the stability of China’s economy.This paper takes the impact of population age structure changes on housing prices as the research object,adopts the basic empirical research methods,selects 30 provinces as the source of data sample,and divides these 30 provinces into three categories according to geographical locations: central,eastern and western.In this way,the relationship between the age structure of the population and the housing price is clarified through the analysis based on the established mathematical models;in addition,the theoretical analysis results are verified by the combined use of panel error correction models and panel vector regression method.Through research,it is concluded that from a long-term perspective,the impact of population age structure on housing prices is significantly negative,and the impact of population age structure on housing price fluctuations varies greatly in different regions is also various.At the same time,other factors will also have a certain impact on housing price fluctuations.Aiming at the current population age structure changes and real estate price trends,this thesis proposes that to ensure the balanced development of real estate,many aspects should be improved,such as rational use of macro-control,strengthening the top-level design of the real estate industry,vigorously developing the elderly care industry,and establishing and improving the classified housing control mechanism.
Keywords/Search Tags:population age structure, real estate prices, population aging
PDF Full Text Request
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