Research On The Influence Mechanism Of Population Structure Change On Economic Growth

In recent years,China’s population shows a continuous decrease in the number of newborns,a continuous increase in the elderly population,the overall level of education of the population has become more and more advanced characteristics,resulting in significant changes in the population structure,the change of population structure will inevitably affect economic growth.General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that "the issue of population has always been an overarched and strategic issue" when he attended the census registration in Zhongnanhai,Beijing in November2020.The relationship between population structure and economic growth has always been the focus of economic research.The research contents of this paper are as follows: Chapter 1,mainly elaborates the background of the research topic,the possible significance of this research,the main content of the research and the analysis methods used in the research;The second chapter elaborates the theories related to population and economic growth.The third chapter introduces the situation of China’s population,analyzes the trend of population change and the change of spatial distribution;Chapter four analyzes the influence of population structure change on economic growth on the basis of relevant theories.The fifth chapter analyzes the influence of population structure change on economic growth with ordinary panel.The sixth chapter analyzes the influence of population structure change on economic growth by using spatial econometric method under the condition of considering the spatial correlation of different regions.Chapter seven,research conclusions,related policy suggestions and ideas for further research.Through the above research,the main conclusions of this paper are as follows :(1)In the southern and northern regions of China,there is a threshold effect of population structure variables on the impact of labor force scale,technology level,consumption scale,capital stock and increment on economic growth.(2)The impact of population structure changes on economic growth varies with the level of economic development.(3)Economic growth has spatial effect.Ignoring the spatial correlation in the process of regional development will overestimate the impact of changes in population age structure,population spatial structure and population mass structure on economic growth.(4)The direct and indirect effects of the expansion of children’s population size are not significant in southern China,but significant in northern China.The increase of the dependency ratio of the elderly population has no significant direct and indirect effects at the national level and in the southern and northern regions of China.The direct effect of urbanization level improvement is significant in the south and north of China,the indirect effect is not significant in the south of China,but has a significant negative indirect effect in the north of China.The improvement of population quality has significant direct and indirect effects in the south and north of China.According to the analysis,the following policy suggestions are put forward.Firstly,each region should fully combine its comparative advantages to cultivate and attract talents that match its local advantages,so as to form a situation of coordinated development of talents and resources.The northern region of our country should focus on the cultivation of "retained" talents;Secondly,the government-led construction of urban and rural integrated childcare system,and at the same time,the development of related industries to serve the elderly group;Finally,improve the quality of urbanization,give play to urban radiation effect,promote regional economic growth.