Research On The Impact Of Birth Rate On Economic Growth In China

As socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era,China faces a more complex and severe domestic and international situation.The domestic demand market is weak,and problems of varying degrees exist in industrial structure,employment,medical care and education.Unilateralism and trade protectionism are on the rise in the world,and the prospects for The development of China’s value chain and industrial chain are not optimistic.Stand in 2022 the overall open to achieve the second goal of the one hundred-year history,we shoulder the realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation the Chinese dream and the all-round construction of rich and powerful democratic civilization harmonious beauty of modern power mission and task,we must grasp the new stage of development,carry out new development concept,build a new development pattern,We will continue to promote better and faster economic and social development in China.Adhering to a people-centered development philosophy,the CPC has constantly promoted common prosperity for all people and formulated and revised a number of policy documents to promote high-quality economic development in China.But while paying attention to economic development,our party has always been concerned about major plans affecting the development of the Chinese nation.The population problem has always affected the development of the Chinese nation.In October 2019,the fourth Plenary Session of the 19 th CPC Central Committee adopted the Decision of the CPC Central Committee on Some Major Issues concerning Upholding and Improving the Socialist System with Chinese Characteristics and Promoting the Modernization of China’s Governance System and Capacity.In March 2021,the law of the People’s Republic of China on the national economic and social development of 14 five-year plan and 2035 vision outline clear requirements to optimize the structure of population,"enhance fertility policy inclusive,promote fertility policy and with coordinated economic and social policy,easing the burden on family planning,parenting,education,release the fertility policy potential".And "deepen the study of population development strategy,improve the comprehensive decision-making mechanism of population and development".On June 26,the "Decision of the CPC Central Committee and The State Council on Optimizing family Planning Policy to Promote long-term Balanced Development of Population" explicitly proposed the three-child policy,along with a number of supporting measures,in order to"release fertility potential,slow down the process of population aging,promote intergenerational harmony,and enhance the overall vitality of society.Therefore,promoting the long-term balanced development of population is an urgent problem for us to solve.Using population factors to promote economic growth is the key content we need to study.In this paper,including the introduction,the related concepts and theoretical basis,the birth rate affect economic growth theories,the birth rate affect economic growth mechanism analysis,analysis of the status quo of the birth rate affect economic growth in China,analyze the birth rate affect economic growth in China,and main conclusion and policy recommendations of six parts.Based on the analysis of China’s overall population data and economic data in the long term,the relevant data of the relevant countries in the world,and the recent population data and relevant data of China’s provinces,cities and autonomous regions,we extensively read relevant domestic and foreign literature to determine the significance and feasibility of the topic selection in this paper.At last,26 variables such as GDP growth rate（explained variable）,birth rate（core explanatory variable）,life expectancy,savings rate,employment structure and gender structure（four control variables）were selected for empirical analysis by ordinary least squares（OLS）method.Then,multicollinearity test,heteroscedasticity test and sequence correlation test were carried out respectively.Finally,by changing variables,the original explained variable "GDP growth rate" was replaced by the growth rate of added value of the primary industry,the growth rate of added value of the secondary industry,the growth rate of added value of the tertiary industry and the per capita GDP growth rate to estimate.The original explanatory variable,birth rate,was replaced by child dependency ratio for estimation.This paper innovatively adds the control variable of "life expectancy of population",and considers the comprehensive impact of birth rate on economic growth from two aspects of "one less and one old".The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the empirical results of this paper support the relevant conclusion of economic growth theory that birth rate promotes economic growth.Birth rate has a significant promoting effect on GDP growth rate in China,and according to the estimation coefficient,every 1% change in birth rate will change GDP growth rate by 1.89%.In line with the effect of birth rate,savings rate also has a significant promoting effect,but its promoting effect is about three times that of birth rate.Life expectancy and employment structure have a significant restraining effect on GDP growth rate,in which every 1% increase in life expectancy will approximately lead to a 20.76% decline in GDP growth rate,and every 1% increase in employment structure will approximately lead to a 3.185% decline in GDP growth rate.But gender structure has no significant effect on GDP growth rate.In is by changing the explained variables and explain different robustness inspection found that the birth rate in the second industrial added value growth rate,the added value of the tertiary industry growth rate and growth rate of per capita GDP is still significant and positive,but the contribution to the second industrial added value growth rate than the added value of the tertiary industry and the contribution of per capita GDP growth rate,The elasticity of birth rate to the growth rate of added value of the secondary industry is about 3.589,and the contribution of birth rate to the latter two is basically the same as the original model.However,the contribution of birth rate to the growth rate of added value of primary industry is not significant.The child dependency ratio has a significant restraining effect on the increase of GDP growth rate,and the elasticity of child dependency ratio is about-4.424.Because of the economic meaning represented by child dependency ratio and the economic meaning thought represented by birth rate,this result is in line with the expected assumption,but the restraining effect of child dependency ratio on GDP growth rate is greater than the promoting effect of birth rate on GDP growth rate.The direction of action of other control variables on GDP growth rate is basically consistent with the original model,but the estimated coefficients are different under different robustness tests.In addition,employment results have no significant effect on the growth rates of value-added of primary industry and tertiary industry,and the estimated coefficient of gender structure is also insignificant in most cases.Finally,relevant policy suggestions are given from the aspects of birth policy,elderly policy,employment and industrial layout.