Study On The Impact Of China’s Population Structure On Economic Growth

Countries around the world in the development process have erupted some demographic problems,common problems include : serious aging,gender imbalance,neonatal reduction.Population is the main body of economic activities and has dual identities of producers and consumers.Its role in economy is self-evident.Population problems will seriously affect the long-term sound development of a country ’ s economy.Therefore,each country pays special attention to population problems.China ’ s population development trend and economy almost simultaneously enter the new normal stage,and there must be an inevitable connection between the two.The population problems exposed in the seventh census are reflected in two aspects :quantity and structure.Among them,population structure and economy are mutually reinforcing,and a reasonable and balanced population structure can promote sustained and stable economic growth.From the perspective of population structure,analyzing its impact on economic growth can clarify the specific factors restricting economic growth,which is of great significance to improve population policy,adjust population structure and achieve stable and sustained economic growth.Firstly,clear the research background and significance,combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,expounds the related concepts and theories involved in this paper,lay a rich theoretical foundation for the following research.Secondly,the current situation of population structure and economic growth are explained.The current situation of population structure is discussed from five aspects : population age structure,population urban and rural structure,population gender structure,population family size structure and population education structure.The current situation of economic growth mainly focuses on the per capita GDP of China ’s provinces（autonomous regions and municipalities）.Then 31 provinces（autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the central government）as the research object,explore China ’ s population age structure,urban and rural structure,gender structure,family size structure and education structure on economic growth direction and influence degree;and taking into account the impact of population structure changes on economic growth may exist regional heterogeneity,therefore,the national panel data is divided into eastern,central and western are analyzed in detail,to explore the specific differences of population structure factors in different regions.In the empirical part,Stata16 software is used for analysis.The econometric model used is the panel data model,and the fixed effect model is mainly used.The robustness test adopts the method of adding variables.The conclusions are as follows :at the national level,the reduction of child dependency ratio is not conducive to economic growth,but the effect is not obvious;the shrinking family size structure of the population significantly inhibits economic growth;the increase of the elderly dependency ratio,the balance of the gender structure of the population,the urbanization of the urban and rural structure of the population,and the high quality of the population education structure are conducive to economic growth.Among the population structure factors that play a positive role in promoting economic growth,the order of promotion degree from strong to weak is : population gender structure,population education structure,population urban-rural structure,elderly dependency ratio.The conclusions of regional heterogeneity analysis are as follows : the effect of child dependency ratio on economic growth shows regional heterogeneity,and the effect in the eastern region is not significantly promoted by indigenous people,while that in the central and western regions is inhibited;the effect of elderly dependency ratio on economic growth shows regional heterogeneity.The eastern and central regions promote but the western regions do not show indigenous inhibition.Finally,according to the results of the current situation analysis and empirical results put forward policy recommendations conducive to further economic growth,efforts from two aspects,namely to reverse the adverse situation and improve the favorable aspects,improve the population policy system in an all-round way,actively respond to the trend of population aging,reverse the adverse situation hindering economic growth;help the balanced development of the gender structure of the population,improve the quality of the whole nation ’ s population in many ways and promote the development of urban and rural population structure towards urbanization,continue to improve the positive aspects of economic growth.