| After more than 30 years of development,China's financial market has grown from the bud to a relatively mature,stable and orderly state.Not only with international standards,but also to create a socialist financial market with Chinese characteristics of the road to development.China's financial market is booming in the new era,but with it comes not only the accumulation of wealth,the acceleration of development and the change of direction,but also the emergence of new financial risks and the accumulation of risks.A new era in our country keep systemic financial risk does not occur red line,not only have to face the weakness of traditional financial development new financial development too fast,but also attaches great importance to the balance of financial resources allocation in our country,through the transformation to high-quality financial due to the bank began to restrict,when fully governance sprawl of non-banking financial institutions in our country.All these constraints are hidden dangers of systemic financial risks.In the first year of the new era,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed that the financial market dominates the Chinese economy and that financial security is national security.China's financial security has become the key to keeping stable economic development in China,in order to understand the financial situation,China's future in advance to prepare for the future risk,in order to optimize the financial risk early warning system to build the foundation in our country,so you need to China of systemic financial risk early warning index system was optimized and verified for its accuracy and applicability.When optimizing the existing index system in China,combined with the mature construction method of the existing index system,the index system of systemic financial risk is preliminarily established based on the theory of financial crisis.It includes four first-level indicators,macroeconomic indicators,indicators of other financial institutions,indicators of Banks and real estate and external shocks,and 36 second-level indicators.Choose to further optimize preliminary index screening index of principal component analysis(PCA)to reduce data dimension improve the content information,choose the entropy value method on the basis of objective weight on a selection,choice the KLR signal system on the basis of accuracy for secondary screening get in this paper,the optimization of index system and using the improved EMP equation to quantify the financial crisis,the last a total of 12 indexes.Furthermore,Logistic model was used to test the prediction of the indicator system,and Hosmer and Lemeshow test was used to test the rationality of the model establishment.According to the prediction results,the prediction accuracy of the optimized index system is96.1%,and the Logistic model is also reasonable.It can be seen from the data that although the probability of occurrence of systemic financial risk in China does not reach the warning red line,it should be paid attention to that the probability of occurrence of systemic financial risk increases year by year.Accordingly,China should shift the focus of risk prevention to the prevention and governance of systemic financial risks,starting from the unbalanced allocation of financial resources,excessive bubbles in the financial market,excessive liquidity of financial risks,and starting from the financial market itself to prevent the occurrence of risks.In addition,the configuration problems of medical care,education,housing and other aspects as well as the problem of de-bubblation should also be solved timely to prevent the occurrence of risks.To sum up,optimize the establishment of the index system has practical significance and practical significance,systemic financial risk will happen in the future of our country has higher forecasting performance,keep systemic financial risk does not occur in the future the red line has great help,have the ability as a high-quality base of risk early warning system in our country. |
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