Research On The Linkage Relationship Between Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Prices And International Crude Oil Futures Prices

As the necessity of industrial production,the stable supply of crude oil is the strong backing of the country's economic development.With the development of financial industry,crude oil futures gradually become an important basis for crude oil market participants to trade and financial institutions to price spot crude oil.With the maturing of China's futures market and the gradual improvement of its trading system,the Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center listed crude oil futures on March 26,2018.Before,China's crude oil was mostly imported,and there was still a lack of crude oil pricing benchmark in Asia.For half a century,WTI crude oil futures in the United States and Brent crude oil futures in Britain have been the world benchmark of crude oil market.The biggest difference between China's crude oil futures products is the pricing and trading of RMB.It saves the price difference caused by exchange rate premium,and facilitates delivery and transportation.If China's yuan-priced crude oil futures can run smoothly on the market,it will benefit domestic and Asian crude oil consumers to a large extent.It is of great significance to the domestic crude oil futures market and national energy security how the crude oil futures market has been running since its listing.Therefore,based on the event of Shanghai crude oil futures listing,the correlation between Shanghai crude oil futures and international crude oil futures market price is studied and analyzed.Shanghai crude oil futures,us WTI crude oil futures and UK Brent crude oil futures were selected.Taking the listing of Shanghai crude oil futures on March 26,2018 as the time node,VAR model and BEKK-GARCH model were used to analyze the correlation between Shanghai crude oil futures and the international market price.Through the empirical analysis found that: Shanghai oil futures listed before,the price of WTI and Brent crude oil futures have significant correlation.After the listing of Shanghai crude oil futures,it has a high degree of fitting with the trend of the international crude oil futures market and a reasonable pricing,which keeps a good price linkage with the international market.In the two selected research periods,WTI crude oil futures always maintained the dominant position in price.After the listing of Shanghai crude oil futures,the price linkage of international crude oil futures market has increased slightly.According to the empirical analysis,this paper presents some suggestions: continue to improve the system of crude oil futures market,strengthening Shanghai crude oil futures market participation and steadily push forward TAS settlement price of crude oil futures trading order and prevent market risks.