Research On Transnational Contagion Of Financial Crisis Based On Complex Network Theory

Financial risk has always been a major concern at home and abroad.At first,the China Financial Work Conference proposed to prevent and control financial risk.At the 19 th National Congress,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the goal of "holding the bottom line without systemic financial risk." And set up the financial stability and Development Committee in January 2020,the outbreak of new pneumonia began,as the epidemic spread,the global stock market bond volatility occurred,U.S.stocks triggered the second circuit breaker in history on March 9,three major stock indexes fell more than 7%.Global Stock Markets also took a sharp dip.The yield on the 30-year treasury note fell to 0.836%,a record low as demand for crude oil shrank due to the outbreak,at the same time,Major oil-producing countries can not reach a production reduction agreement and start a price war.Oil prices have plunged,and crude oil prices have recorded the largest one-day intraday drop in history.Bond,currency and stock markets are important financial indicators,its sharp fall is also a harbinger of the financial crisis.Major developed economies in the world,including the United States,Japan and Europe,are facing a recessionary trend and lack effective policy tools,some countries are falling into the "liquidity trap".This paper studies the transnational contagion of financial risk,mainly studies two basic methods,one is the construction method of the common movement model,the other is the network construction based on the common movement model,this paper studies the log-to-log returns of important countries from 2003 to 2014 and divides the data into three parts according to the time of United States subprime mortgage crisis,by establishing common motion model and using sliding window method,the variables in the network were established in 2007-10 and 11-14 years before and after the 2003-06 crisis,respectively,this variable is regarded as a node to construct a directional weighted network between two countries in each period,and then the empirical results are reflected by the transformation characteristics between the weighted network analysis models,the co-movement model between two countries is determined by a small number of key nodes in the evolutionary process.The motion model has the characteristics of grouping,and the transformation of the common motion model takes 3 to 5 days on average to determine the contagion behavior of the sub-prime mortgage crisis by comparing the node strength,clustering Coefficient and intermediary centrality of the three stages.The innovation of this paper is firstly embodied in the research methods.This paper explores the contagion of financial crisis in different countries around the world from theperspective of complex network,this method can be used as a reference for the researchers in this field.Secondly,this paper constructs an analysis model of contagion effect of financial crisis as a common motion model,at last,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the prevention and control of Financial Risk Contagion...