Survival Analysis Of Crude Oil Waxing Problem

With the rapid development of the world,the importance of oil as a strategic resource is self-evident.Therefore,it is of great significance to ensure efficient and stable oil extraction.The wax problem has always been a challenge during oil extraction.Data shows that China's crude oil has a high wax content.Data show that China's crude oil has a high wax content.According to statistics,the crude oil with a wax content of more than 10% accounts for almost 90% of all the crude oil produced,and most of the crude oil contains more than 20%.High levels of wax also mean a higher risk of wax formation and a higher cost of wax removal.Therefore,effective prevention of paraffin formation is of great significance to oil production companies.In order to help the crude oil production company to explore the paraffin law,prevent the paraffin problem,save the unnecessary cost of paraffin removal.In this paper,the production cycle is taken as the research object,and the production dynamic data of oil Wells with similar wax content,geographical location and various parameters are selected as the data set.The waxing degree of oil well is expressed by the daily production rate of oil well.The production cycle represents the paraffin cycle.Through observation data,it is found that the paraffin cycle of oil well is not all such a complete cycle.These cycles are usually ended by manual wax removal,shut-in,etc.,which causes production to drop to very low levels.But at this point the well usually has the potential to continue producing oil,meaning that the actual cycle is longer than observed.Here and delete the concept of loss of data in survival analysis fits well,so this article introduces the ideas of the survival analysis this scenario,and ultimately determines a paraffin removal operation again after the production date as the cycle begins,the date or before the next paraffin oil production fell by more than 50% as the date of end of cycle.And if the period is due to the end of the wax removal operation is recorded as the deletion period,because the period of the end of the oil production decline of more than 50% is recorded as the complete period.After the processed life cycle data are obtained,this paper firstly USES the data to estimate the survival rate of this type of Wells,and USES the estimated value to predict the life cycle using the weibull survival regression model.And 70% of the data is used as the training set and 30% of the data as the test set.Weibull survival regression model was established.According to the criteria set by experts,the accuracy of the model in this paper reaches 61.64%.It is much higher than the model trained by machine learning in the same data set.It is recognized by business experts that the weibull survival regression model in this paper can be applied in actual production.