| The scale of China's stock market is growing rapidly,and more and more investors participate in stock trading.By the end of January 2020,the number of A-share investors has reached 159918000.At the same time,the box office of the film reached a new high.In 2019,the box office reached 60.7 billion,and the number of people watching the film kept growing.The number of people watching the film reached 1.727 billion.As a cultural consumption,the film is more and more loved and concerned by everyone.Both the stock market and the film market are concerned by the capital.Among the A shares,there are a large number of companies engaged in film related production and distribution.The release of each film has a fluctuation on their share price.Therefore,the analysis of the performance before and after the release of the film has an impact on the fluctuation of the share price of related companies can help investors to make investment judgments.In this paper,film release is regarded as a specific event,and the impact of this specific event on the stock price fluctuation of related listed companies is studied by using the event analysis method.In order to study the relationship between the two,this paper divides the performance of film release into three angles,namely,the number of films,the box office and the word-of-mouth.In addition,the stock price fluctuation of related companies is dealt with through the synchronization of stock price.With the help of correlation analysis to study the impact of film release on the stock price volatility of related companies,mainly from the long-term and short-term two time periods to study the relationship between the two.For a long time,taking every year as the time cycle,this paper analyzes the correlation between 601 films released in 2008-2017 and 25 related listed companies to study the long-term impact of film release performance on the stock price fluctuation of related companies.In the short term,119 films released in 2017 and 12 related listed companies were selected to study the short-term impact of film release performance on the stock price fluctuation of related companies in the three time periods: the two weeks before the release of the film,the day of the release of the film,and the two weeks after the release of the film.The results show that the fluctuation of stock price in the first two weeks is more than that after the release.Because the market had expectations for the film before it was released,and this expectation would often bring advance speculation to the listed companies involved in the production.After the movie is released,the hype is often over,and the stock price of related companies will fluctuate with the market.However,if the performance exceeds the expectation,the stock price of related companies will fluctuate greatly.At the same time,it is found that the performance of the film release for the fluctuation of the stock price of the relevant listed companies,the short-term fluctuation of the stock price is significantly higher than the long-term fluctuation of the stock price,indicating that investor sentiment is more vulnerable to the impact of short-term public opinion,in a short period of time,the performance of the film after release can more fluctuate the stock price of the relevant listed companies.From the perspective of the impact of movie performance on the stock price,movie word-of-mouth has the greatest impact,followed by the box office,and then the number of films.Especially when the word-of-mouth and box office performance of a film are good,the relevant listed companies involved are more likely to be concerned by the market,and then cause fluctuations in the stock price.On the one hand,the above research helps investors to understand the impact of film release performance on the stock price of related companies,and provides a reference for them to invest in related listed companies.On the other hand,it provides a reference for related listed companies to participate in film investment production. |
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