Stubborn Perseverance: A Look At British Hong Kong-related Decisions Before And After Margaret Thatcher's Visit To China In 1982 From The British Diplomatic Archives

The unrest in Hong Kong in recent years has made it necessary to review the history of Hong Kong's return from UK to PRC.Over nearly two decades of contact between China and Britain on the future of Hong Kong(1978-1997),the year 1982 was particularly important because the leaders of the two countries formally discussed the Hong Kong issue for the first time ever.Mrs.Thatcher's visit to China in September1982 ended the three-year period of "mutual exploration of falsehood and reality" between the two sides and started the process of intensive diplomatic negotiations from1982 to 1984.From the British perspective,the Hong Kong issue didn't catch the attention of its leader(mainly handled by functional departments)until July 1982.From July to September,Mrs.Thatcher finally instructed the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to conduct a comprehensive study this issue.She received extensive suggestions from various fields at the same time,and finally formed her final decision on the eve of her visit to China,which was to take a strong stand before the Chinese leaders.However,the "Chinese concession" expected by the British side did not appear.The statement of Chinese leaders was even tougher than the Britons imagined.No one seemed prepared to withdraw.After the talks,the British side assessed the situation,referred to historical experience,counted relevant bargaining chips,and then formulated an "Education Plan" in the hope of persuading Chinese decision makers to retreat from their original position.However,the implementation of this plan was far from satisfactory.Instead,the Chinese side increasingly showed the tendency to bypass diplomatic negotiations and adopt unilateral measures.Finally,the Britons realized that their objective was no longer realistic and feasible.They had to start thinking about making concessions.During this time,huge pressure from Hong Kong prompted the British side to maintain its original tough standing,which restricted the flexibility to adjust its position.According to the declassified British archives,the Britons adopted such a tough opening standing in 1982 because the decision-makers fell into a psychological phenomenon named “Groupthink”.On the Hong Kong issue,less than 15 people took part in the British decision-making process,most of which came from the diplomatic service.However,the suspicions and resentments in the FCO that Mrs.Thatcher might consider them “too weak” led to their wrong judgement that “China might allow British administration to continue after 1997”.Although the diplomats had successfully persuaded Mrs.Thatcher to give up a tougher position(“Hong Kong's sovereignty cannot be renounced”),what they said also convinced her that the Chinese were likely to compromise on administration if the Britons made a move on sovereignty ——British administration could be kept anyway.For various reasons,Mrs.Thatcher's other sources of information failed to issue timely warnings.It was not until the end of November 1982 that the Joint Intelligence Committee(JIC)finally made the first “correction” of such misjudgment.On the other hand,the Chinese decision-makers seemed to have decided to “exclude British administration” in December 1981,but the signals sent by the Chinese side in 1982,due to various reasons,also failed to get the right message across.