Research And Stress Test On Credit Risk Of SME Supply Chain Financing Under The Impact Of Tariffs

Under the trend of market intensification,the competition of a single enterprise gradually evolves into a game between supply chains.Smes can rely on the core enterprise credit or the asset value of circulation for financing.Different from traditional financing business,supply chain financing features such as multiple participants,complex process and dynamic change of credit asset value determine the difference of its credit risk management methods.At present,the international economic situation is complex and uncertain.There is considerable downward pressure on the domestic economy and economic growth is slowing down.Despite the imposition of tariffs in 2018,China’s import and export trade volume has not experienced major fluctuations,with little impact in the short term.But in the long run,if there is no corresponding preventive measures,the risk will continue to accumulate qualitative changes due to positive feedback.Smes are an important part of national economy and the main part of supply chain financing business.In addition to their own business development,but also need to have a sense of crisis,risk prevention in advance,in order to reduce the possibility of risk impact caused by emergencies.This paper studies the credit risk of sme supply chain financing and the risk change of sme in supply chain node under the influence of tariff.First of all,based on the data of cbi,small and medium-sized enterprises in the electronic equipment manufacturing industry were selected as the research object,a Logistic model with boundary was established from the perspectives of supply chain market environment,small and medium-sized enterprises themselves,core enterprise credit and characteristics of trading assets,and particle swarm optimization algorithm was used to calculate the credit default risk model of small and medium-sized enterprises.It is found that GDP,total import and export trade,consumer price index,total import and export tariffs,net profit growth rate of smes,rate of return on assets,return on equity of core enterprises,quick ratio and cash ratio have significant effects on default rate.Secondly,based on credit default contribution,for small and medium-sized enterprise supply chain financing credit risk stress tests,analyzed tariff,exchange rate fluctuations cause the possibility of cross-infection indicator variables,according to theresult of cointegration test vector error correction model(VECM),set out three different macroeconomic situation,quantitative economic changes impact on credit risk in the future.The empirical results show that small and medium-sized enterprises have certain anti-pressure ability under mild tariff shock,and their credit risk increases significantly under severe shock,but on the whole,the increase of credit risk is limited.Finally,Based on the empirical conclusion,the paper puts forward relevant countermeasures to provide references for the transformation and innovation of small and medium-sized enterprises,the establishment and improvement of risk early warning mechanism of commercial Banks and regulatory agencies.