Research On Influencing Factors Of Overdue Return In Public Librarie

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out:"Improve the public cultural service system,deeply implement the cultural project to benefit the people,and enrich the mass cultural activities." The public library is the main front of grassroots culture to benefit the people,and it plays an irreplaceable role in improving the public cultural service system and building a learning society.However,public libraries are faced with the phenomenon of high overdue-return rate of books,which seriously weakens the library’s function of information resource sharing and damages the reading rights of most readers.Taking the data of Shanghai Public Library as an example,the overdue-return rate of all libraries in 2018 was as high as 16.91%.Among them,large libraries at the district and county level were the hardest hit areas for overdue-return,which means that for every 5 books borrowed,there will be one book that cannot be returned on time.In this context,this article studies the influence factors of overdue return of public libraries,and aims to solve the problem of overdue-return of books from the source.This article makes use of the circulation data of all public libraries in Shanghai,and combines theoretical analysis with empirical research to explore the phenomenon of overdue-return of books in public libraries,explore the causes and influencing factors of overdue-return of books,provide guidance and suggestions for the overdue management of books in public libraries.In terms of theoretical analysis,this article points out that the causes of the overduereturn of books can be divided into forgetting to return books and deliberately not returning books.In combination with the theory of moral hazard in the field of economics and the theory of overconfidence in the field of behavioral psychology,this article discusses the influencing factors of overdue book return from the three dimensions of readers,books and libraries.On this basis,a number of research indicators of overdue book return are constructed to prepare for the subsequent construction of empirical model.In terms of empirical research,this article uses the circulation,books,readers and other data of all public libraries in Shanghai from 2014 to 2018 as samples,and selects Logit model for regression analysis.According to the regression results of the model,16 explanatory variables that significantly affect the overdue-return of books,including readers’ personal information and historical borrowing behavior,book category,popularity and resource tension,and the geographical location of the library.In order to further verify the validity of the influencing factors,the explanatory variables obtained from Logit model were applied to the overdue return prediction model based on the neural network algorithm of LSTM and the method of feature fusion,and the F1 score was increased by 3.42%compared with the benchmark model.Based on the analysis of the factors that influence the overdue-return of books in public libraries,this article gives some suggestions from the perspective of public libraries.First of all,a book overdue risk assessment system should be established,which will improve the traditional SMS or WeChat reminder function and realize personalized reminder service.Secondly,the library lending system should be popularized and adjusted,and the propaganda work should be done vigorously on the basis of the improved policy.Finally,it is necessary to optimize inventory and copy management,allocate resources reasonably and supplement new resources.These measures are beneficial to reduce the overdue rate of the library,make the books flow orderly in the society,and protect the reading interests of the broad masses of readers.At present,domestic and foreign scholars mainly use questionnaire survey or single library data to qualitatively analyze the overdue factors.On the contrary,this article relies on Shanghai Public Library data with various dimensions and huge amount of data,and establishes an empirical model to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors.At the same time,this article innovatively uses interdisciplinary theoretical knowledge to explain the causes of overdue book return behavior,which is another form of interdisciplinary integration.Therefore,the work of this paper will effectively fill the theoretical gap in this field of research and promote the development of China’s cultural undertakings.