| The Chinese egret(Egretta eulophotes)is a migratory water bird distributed in my country and Southeast Asia.Due to its scarcity,it is listed as a vulnerable species by the World Conservation Union(IUCN)and belongs to the national first-class protected animal.The current understanding of the Chinese egret is relatively limited,and related research mainly focuses on reproductive behavior,feeding habits and genetic diversity.Knowing the potential suitable habitat areas of Chinese egrets will help to better formulate relevant protection plans.This study collected and screened 69 Chinese egrets overwintering sites from the global biodiversity website,and selected 28 environmental variables such as water distribution,human footprint index,isotherm,and warmest season precipitation,and used SPSS software to make environmental variables.According to the result,three environmental variables were eliminated,and then ArcGIS software and MaxEnt model were used to predict suitable distribution habitats for the Chinese egret under different climate models,and construct the relationship between Chinese egret and geographical environment.It also analyzes the potential suitable distribution habitats,regional areas changes and influencing factors of Chinese egrets,so as to provide a scientific basis for the protection of the Chinese egret.The results show that the highly suitable distribution habitats of Chinese egret under different climate models are mainly concentrated in Guangxi Province in China,the Gulf of Tonkin area near Cambodia and Kalimantan Island in Indonesia;the northern area of Mannar Bay is a potential suitable distribution habitats;affecting the distribution of Chinese egret under different climate models are mainly Bio18,Biol9,human footprint index,water distribution and NDVI.In 2050,with the change of RCPs,the proportion of the highly suitable distribution habitats becomes lower and lower;In 2070,under the moderately stable total radiative forcing,the highly suitable distribution habitats increases,but under the extremely high forcing,showing a shrinking trend.The centroid of Chinese egret migrates to low latitudes under both low and high radiative forcing,while under moderate radiative forcing,northward shift will occur.In addition,areas of change are mainly concentrated in the Kalimantan Island in Indonesia,the eastern coastal areas of Vietnam and the southern coastal areas of Cambodia. |