Research On The Impact Of Pension Insurance On The Working Hours Of The Elderly Based On Regression Discontinuity Desig

The 21st century is a new era in which the world’s population is entering the aging era,and countries around the world are gradually entering the stage of population aging society,and the proportion of the elderly population in China is also increasing year by year.As of November 1,2020,the seventh census data show that the total population of China is 1.41 billion,the highest in the world,and the proportion of people aged 65 and above is 13.5%,which is a serious problem of aging.In order to cope with the serious popu lation aging and social security problems in China,and to realize the basic requirement of a harmonious society in which "the elderly have a sense of security and support",General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized the need to build a more equitable,high-quality and sustainable social security system.As a basic security system,what is the impact of old-age insurance on the labor supply of the elderly?This paper focuses on the impact of old-age insurance on the labor time of the elderly.Based on the 2018 follow-up data after integrating some data from CHARLS 2013 and 2015,we empirically analyze the impact of urban and rural residents or urban workers’ pension insurance on the annual labor time of the elderly under the dual-track pension insurance system using a fuzzy breakpoint regression design with two-stage least squares parameter estimation.Specifically,this paper compares the effects on the annual working time of urban and rural elderly.For the rural elderly,we investigate the effects of urban and rural residents pension insurance on their annual working hours for agricultural self-employment,non-agricultural selfemployment,helpers for household business activities,and agricultural employment,respectively.The study also investigates the effect of non-agricultural years of employment on the length of time that men and women are employed in urban areas and analyzes the heterogeneity of educational attainment for the female subsample.The results show that the effect of receiving urban and rural residents pension insurance on the annual working time of agricultural self-employment and nonagricultural self-employment and family helpers is not significant,while the effect of receiving urban workers’ pension insurance on the annual working time of nonagricultural employment of urban elderly is significant.Specifically,the annual agricultural employment hours of rural elderly people are significantly reduced by 427.12 hours at the 1%significance level;the annual agricultural employment hours of urban elderly people are significantly reduced by 504.96 hours at the 5%significance level,and the annual agricultural employment hours of urban elderly women are significantly reduced by 611.92 hours at the 1%significance level.In addition,the number of hours of agricultural employment of urban elderly women with junior high school or higher education level is reduced to a 5%significance level.Therefore,we propose several suggestions for reference only:First,to increase the basic amount of urban and rural old-age insurance pensions reasonably.Second,is the national coordination of pension insurance payments.Third,increase the incentives and support for urban and rural residents pension insurance contributions.Fourth,to help young people return to their hometowns to work and reduce the labor supply of the elderly in rural areas.Fifth,adjust the age of pension collection and payment appropriately.