Research On The Optimal Allocation Of Water Resources In Yuanzhou District Based On The Constraints Of "Three Red Lines"

Water resources are both basic resources and important strategic resources,there are still serious contradictions between water supply and demand and poor water quality in northwest China,which have seriously restricted the economic development of the region.The strictest water resources management system proposed in 2011 is a time-sensitive water resources management system based on China’s water consumption,which can better solve various problems in water resources allocation.However,the restrictions of the water resources management system were rarely considered in the past water resources allocation work,resulting in unreasonable water resources planning work.In the face of this reality,this paper studies on the optimal allocation of water resources based on the "Three Red Lines" under the strictest water resources management system in Yuanzhou District,Guyuan City,Ningxia,which is located in the northwest arid region.This paper has certain theoretical and practical significance.In view of the problems in the existing research,this study focuses on the following aspects.(1)Based on the analysis and summary of domestic and international research on water demand forecasting methods,a coupled model of correlation analysis and multilayer perceptron neural network was used to forecast the water demand of various industries in Yuanzhou district in the planning year.The validation results of the test set showed that the multi-year average relative error of this coupled model was 1.86%,indicating the high accuracy of this model.The model was then used to predict the water demand of each water sector in Yuanzhou District in 2025 and 2035,and the predicted results were further analyzed.(2)Analyzed the relationship between the "Three Red Lines" and the optimal allocation of water resources,incorporated the constraints of the "Three red lines" into the constraints of the allocation model,and constructed a multi-dimensional model with the characteristics of the "Three Red Lines".The multi-objective water resources optimization allocation model of Yuanzhou District with the characteristics of "Three Red Lines" was constructed.And through a simple comparison,the multi-objective genetic algorithm based on the control elite strategy was finally selected to solve this model,and this algorithm was elaborated accordingly.(3)Based on the theory of water resources optimization allocation model based on "Three red lines",the water resources optimization allocation model was established based on the situation of multi-water supply pattern in Yuanzhou district,which was solved by using gamultiobj function to get the water distribution plan with different guarantee rates in different planning years.The water allocation results were further analyzed in terms of water allocation,water shortage rate and target values in order to provide theoretical support for future water resources planning in Yuanzhou District.