Measurement Of Household Income Mobility And Its Influencing Factors In China

Since the reform and opening up,China’s residents’ income inequality has received extensive attention.If only from the Gini coefficient,China’s income gap is at a very high level,but some scholars believe that if the concept of income mobility is introduced,China’s income inequality is not so serious,so the research on China’s residents’ family income mobility and its influencing factors is of great practical significance.Firstly,this thesis measures the relative and absolute mobility of Chinese household income;Then the latent category analysis model is used to classify the family structure,so as to establish a multi classification logistic regression model and linear regression model based on the type of family structure to analyze the influencing factors of the relative flow and absolute flow of family income respectively.This thesis makes a comprehensive measurement of household income mobility in China.The analysis found that,whether in different regions,cities or rural areas,China’s household income level continues to rise,but there are still significant differences between regions and between urban and rural areas.Whether it is the absolute amount or growth range of household income,the eastern region is significantly better than the central and Western Regions,and the cities are significantly better than the rural areas.According to the method of quintiles,families are divided into five income grades.It is found that the income growth from grade 1 to grade 4is very limited,and the growth of grade 5 is very rapid,which leads to the widening income gap between grade 5 and the remaining four grades.Combining the change of absolute income with the income level of the family,it is found that income flow leads to the concentration of increased income to high-income families,while the mobility of lower-income families is very limited.After constructing the household income grade conversion matrix and calculating the information entropy,it is found that the families with the highest and lowest income grades have the worst relative income mobility,and the families with the highest income grades have lower and lower relative income mobility.Following the calculation method of Lorentz curve and Gini coefficient,the curve is drawn with the cumulative percentage of family income in the base period as the horizontal axis and the cumulative percentage of family income change as the vertical axis,and the corresponding coefficient is calculated.It is found that the absolute income flow of resident families in China is mainly concentrated in high-income familiesThis thesis analyzes the influencing factors of relative and absolute flow of family income.Firstly,according to the latent category analysis,the family structure is divided into six categories: urban working families,farming families,half working and half farming families,pure old families,rural working families and elite families.Then the multi classification logistic regression model is estimated by Bayesian method to obtain the transfer probability based on Bayesian method.The analysis shows that elite families,pure old families and urban working families are more conducive to flow to a higher family income level,However,farming families,half working and half farming families and rural working families are more likely to flow into lower family income levels,especially farming families.Then the linear regression model is established,and it is found that the absolute income of families in the eastern region is easier to flow upward than that in the central and western regions;The higher the relative income level of the family,the more conducive the downward flow of the absolute income of the family;Compared with urban working families,farming families,semi working and semi farming families and rural working families are more unfavorable to the upward flow of absolute income of families,and the absolute income of farming families is the easiest to flow downward,and elite families are easier to flow upward than urban working families.