Actuarial Study Of Rural Endowment Insurance Based On CBD Model

In China’s population of different age groups,the proportion of the elderly is increasing,which means that life expectancy will be longer and longer.Studying the rural social endowment insurance system,especially the replacement rate,is a good method to guarantee the quality of life of the elderly population in rural areas.The analysis of the problem is based on the current rural social endowment insurance policy of Henan Province.First of all,it is assumed that rural residents of the right age are fully capable of working,and those with obvious mental and physical disabilities are not considered for the time being.The working ability of farmers is positively correlated with their health status,which also directly affects their subsistence income.The amount that rural residents are willing to pay in the new rural insurance policy is also closely related to their annual net income,and the proportion of their annual net income to pay in the new rural insurance policy also depends on their annual net income.The Lee-Carter model and the CBD model are two classic models of random mortality prediction.First,the Lee-Carter model is used to adjust the time factor of CBD model,and then the mortality rate and life expectancy of the 60-year-old population in the next 10 years are calculated,and the life expectancy is used in the calculation of replacement rate below.In addition,according to the phenomenon of demolition in life,the paper establishes a short-term"hidden" replacement rate model;Using this model to analyze the change of replacement rate,and feasible suggestions are put forward.