Research On Emergency Decision-Making Method Based On Case-Based Reasoning Under Fuzzy Preference

In recent years,the frequent occurrence of emergencies has seriously affected people’s health and social stability,brought huge losses to the world,and attracted people’s attention to the field of emergency management.As the core link in the field of emergency management,emergency decision-making can effectively reduce the harm of emergencies.Due to the uncertainty,dynamism,and big disruption of emergencies,emergency decision-making has typical characteristics such as complexity,ambiguity,and dynamism,which brings difficulties to emergency decision-makers.Therefore,the research on emergency decision-making deserves to be further explored and paid more attention.This paper mainly studies the three stages in the emergency decision-making process,which are: the formulation of the emergency alternative sets,the selection of the initial emergency plan,and the adjustment of the subsequent emergency plan.The research work for these three stages is as follows:(1)Using knowledge element model and case-based reasoning technology,a method for generating emergency alternative sets is proposed.Firstly,the emergency case and scenario representation model is constructed by using the knowledge element model.Then,the calculation method of the similarity of the knowledge element instance is given,and then the calculation process and method of the scenario similarity based on the knowledge element are proposed.(2)Using the linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy preference relationship,the initial emergency plan selection method under the linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy preference relationship is proposed.Firstly,the additive consistency of linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy preference relationship is analyzed.Based on this,three goal programming models are constructed in turn to obtain the complete linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy preference relationship,the linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy preference relationship with acceptable additive consistency,and the linguistic intuitionistic fuzzy priority weight of the alternative.(3)Through Bayesian network and prospect theory,an adjustment method of emergency alternative is proposed.Firstly,the scenario evolution model is constructed based on Bayesian network,and then combined with prospect theory,the calculation method of the comprehensive prospect value of the alternative is proposed.(4)Taking typhoon emergencies as an example,the application process of the emergency decision-making method is expounded,and the feasibility of the method is proved.Combining the above research points,this paper proposes an emergency decisionmaking method based on case-based reasoning under fuzzy preference.This method can provide guidance and help for emergency decision-makers in the formulation,selection and adjustment of emergency alternatives,and lay a theoretical foundation for relevant emergency decision-making research.