An Interactive Transmission Model Of Information And Infectious Disease And Immunization Strategy Based On Two-layer Network

With the rapid development of network technology,the sharing of all kinds of information and data and the popularization of communication tools have made human social relations more closely and complex,which has exerted a significant influence on the spread of infectious diseases in human society.In the information age,the spread of infectious diseases among the population will be accompanied by the spread of relevant information on the information network,affecting the prevention and control behaviors of uninfected individuals in the face of the spread of infectious diseases,thus reducing the probability of being infected by infectious diseases.For infected individuals,when they are infected and show certain clinical symptoms,the individual’s consciousness state will change immediately and they will pay more attention to the information related to infectious diseases,thus affecting the individual’s neighbor nodes’ consciousness state in the information network.In the transmission process of infectious diseases at the physical contact level,certain clinical symptoms will be shown in the infected individuals.For some highly infectious diseases,there will also be an exposed state(infectious but with no clinical symptoms).Similar to the Novel Coronavirus,such highly concealed infectious diseases will cause greater harm to human beings.Therefore,it is extremely necessary to consider exposed nodes when studying the spread of infectious diseases.In the information network,both information and human memory have timeliness.Therefore,in the two-layer network with the spread of infectious disease and the spread of consciousness information,the coupling transmission process of infectious disease and consciousness information can show more complex transmission dynamics than the single-layer network.This paper studies the influence of the spread of consciousness information on the spread of infectious diseases in two-layer networks,and explores the influence of vaccination strategy and scale on the spread of infectious diseases by introducing exposed state nodes and time-varying forgetting probability functions.The main work and achievements of this paper are as follows:(1)Considering that many infectious diseases with high infectivity have exposed state(infectious but no clinical symptoms)in the process of transmission,this paper proposes a SEIR model with exposed state based on the classic SIS and SIR models in the physical contact layer and coupled with the consciousness information layer.A two-layer network model of infectious disease and consciousness information interaction based on individual consciousness is established.The propagation threshold is calculated by micro-Markov chain method,and the numerical simulation shows that the propagation of infectious diseases in the two-layer network is not only related to the diffusion of consciousness at the information layer,but also related to the topology of the network.(2)The consciousness of information related to infectious diseases spread on social networks,due to individual differences or the passage of time,individuals have a probability of forgotten forget information with time-varying characteristics,and the size of the actual scale of the spread of infectious diseases can affect individual’s forgotten probability,the bigger the spread of infectious diseases,the individuals more alert,the less likely you are to forget.By establishing the time-varying forgetting probability function and introducing it into the two-layer network model,the transmission of infectious diseases in the real network can be more truly reflected.The numerical simulation shows that the larger the probability of forgetting,that the larger the spread scale of infectious diseases will be.The time-varying probability of forgetting will cause certain fluctuations in the transmission process of infectious diseases.The actual transmission of infectious diseases can be well fitted by using the novel Coronavirus data of Sichuan province in February 2020.Therefore,the two-layer network model considering time-varying forgetting probability can effectively reflect and predict the spread of infectious diseases.(3)As one of the most effective methods for prevention and control of infectious diseases,vaccination strategy and the final scale of vaccination have always been the focus of research on prevention and control of infectious diseases.Aiming at the double-layer network transmission model of infectious disease transmission and consciousness information diffusion coupling,a vaccination strategy based on game theory was proposed in scale-free network(BA)and small-world network(WS).Through numerical simulation,it is found that vaccination process is not only related to individual game psychology,but also related to network topology.It also found that the greater the number of vaccinations,the greater the reduction in the spread of infectious diseases.