Study On The Transmission Mechanism Of Banana Price Fluctuations In China

China is a large country of banana production and consumption.Banana industry is an important pillar industry of the economic income of fruit farmers in hot areas,and has played an important role in helping poverty alleviation and Rural Revitalization.In recent years,China’s banana production has effectively achieved steady growth,but through industrial research,it is found that the banana market price is facing two difficulties: first,the banana market price frequently fluctuates abnormally,which seriously damages the expected welfare of the main body of the banana industry market;Second,there is a strong asymmetry between the price fluctuation of banana production end and sales end.The upward trend of banana retail price is more and more obvious,while the purchase price continues to decline,resulting in the problems of "expensive to buy bananas" and "difficult to sell bananas" at the same time.Therefore,through empirical research,this paper analyzes the transmission characteristics of banana price fluctuation,studies and judges the influencing factors of banana price fluctuation transmission,provides reference and suggestions for the government to formulate relevant policies,promote the virtuous circle of banana circulation,promote the stable development of banana industry,help farmers increase income,boost rural revitalization,and ensure the dual welfare of producers and consumers.This paper selects the purchase,wholesale and retail prices of bananas from January2012 to December 2020,analyzes the price fluctuation characteristics of banana market by using census12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter,further constructs VAR model to study the transmission relationship between banana market prices,and uses Granger causality test to reveal the price prediction ability between producer market,middleman market and consumer market;The impulse response function is used to reveal the dynamic influence path between the three market prices;Variance decomposition is used to reveal the degree of action between the three market prices.According to the above research methods,the empirical analysis is carried out and the following conclusions are drawn:(1)from the price fluctuation trend chart of banana market,the monthly transmission of banana purchase,wholesale and retail prices is generally good,but the rising and falling ranges and speeds of the three are inconsistent.The purchase price is "falling fast and rising slowly",while the wholesale and retail prices are "rising fast and falling slowly".(2)From the seasonal adjustment of census 12,the purchase,wholesale and retail prices of bananas are greatly affected by seasonal and irregular factors,but in contrast,the purchase price of bananas is most affected by them and is more likely to form violent fluctuations;The purchase,wholesale and retail prices of bananas are affected by seasonality and gradually weaken with the passage of time.(3)From the perspective of HP filter decomposition method,the price fluctuation cycle of banana purchase,wholesale and retail is about one year.The three price fluctuation cycles are gradually shortened with the passage of time,and the fluctuation frequency is more frequent,but the amplitude is relatively slow.(4)From the perspective of Granger causality test and impulse response function,when one link of banana sales chain is impacted,it will be transmitted to other links.The positive transmission of banana purchase,wholesale and retail prices is smooth,and the purchase price is helpful to predict the wholesale and retail prices;There is a time lag in the reverse transmission of sales chain prices among retail,wholesale and purchase prices.Retail prices help to predict wholesale prices,but have no significant correlation with purchase prices.The reverse feedback mechanism of banana sales chain price fluctuation transmission is insufficient.(5)From the perspective of variance decomposition,the purchase price plays a leading role in the whole banana sales chain,has the greatest impact on the wholesale price and retail price,and the impact continues to strengthen with the passage of time.According to the above conclusions,this study believes that the short and slow fluctuation cycle of bananas is due to the realization of staggered peak listing and the continuous optimization of storage and transportation conditions within the year,while the imperfect pricing mechanism leads to frequent price fluctuations;The poor reverse transmission of banana sales chain is caused by the circulation pattern separated from production and marketing,the imbalance of market forces and the imperfect market information monitoring and early warning platform.In view of these problems,this paper focuses on strengthening the government’s macro-control,promoting the diversified transformation of banana marketing mode,and continuing to improve the regional listing sequence and storage and transportation conditions Broaden the information transmission channels of banana industry and focus on banana production links,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions to optimize the transmission mechanism of banana price fluctuation in China.