The Influence Of Railway Network Density On Railway Total Factor Productivity

"Powering transportation country,railway first".With the rapid development of China’s railway,the railway network density has been continuously densified,and many major breakthroughs have been made in railway technological innovation.At the same time,the structural imbalance in the density of the railway network is becoming more and more obvious.Under the background that the national economic development path has turned to innovation-driven,has China’s railway realized the transition from being driven by factors and investment to being driven by innovation? Furthermore,what role does railway network density play in the evolution of railway total factor productivity(TFP),and what is the relationship between the two.This paper attempts to answer the above questions by measuring the railway dynamic TFP index,and doing theoretical analysis and empirical test of the relationship between its evolution process and railway network density.This paper first uses the three-stage DEA-Malmquist index model to measure the TFP index of China’s railway from 2007 to 2018;then,based on the transportation theory and the law of diminishing marginal returns,an explanatory framework for the relationship between railway network density and railway TFP is constructed,focusing on explaining its technology spillover effect,resource allocation effect and scale expansion effect,and the realistic trend of these three effects after considering the influence of internal and external factors;after that,taking 18 railway bureaus across the country as the research object,a variable coefficient model was constructed to empirically test the heterogeneity effect of railway network density on railway TFP.The main conclusions include:(1)China’s railway TFP shows a fluctuating growth trend,with an average annual growth rate of 4.9%.Railway innovation has achieved remarkable results.Technological progress is the main source of contribution,and the decline in technological efficiency plays a role as a drag.The calculation results show that all railway bureaus except Shenyang bureau have achieved TFP improvement.Qinghai-Tibet Railway Company,Urumqi Bureau and Kunming Bureau ranked the top three.(2)The influence of railway network density on railway TFP shows significant bureau heterogeneity.The regression coefficients of railway network density of 6railway bureaus including Urumqi Bureau are positive,and other railway bureaus railway network density has no obvious promoting effect on railway TFP.(3)The heterogeneity stems from the different directions and strengths of the three effects between the bureaus.Urumqi Bureau,Wuhan Bureau and others mainly promote the growth of railway TFP by exerting the effect of scale expansion.The technical spillover effect of Beijing Bureau,Chengdu Bureau and others,the resource allocation effect of Harbin Bureau,Xi’an Bureau and others,and the scale expansion effect of Shenyang Bureau,Hohhot Bureau and others reversely affect the growth of railway TFP.(4)For most railway bureaus,network density is not a decisive factor in the growth of railway TFP.While expanding the scale of railway,we must not ignore the diminishing marginal returns of railway network construction.The high-quality development of railway needs to pay attention to the effective connection between the scale of the railway network and the structure of the railway network,the quality of the railway network and the spatial layout of other railway transportation supplies,as well as the relationship between the supply of railway transportation and the transportation demand caused by the economy,population,and geographical resources.These internal and external factors will jointly affect the growth of railway TFP.13 figures,24 tables,and 72 references.