A Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Transmission Model Based On Epidemic Situation In Hubei And Its Dynamic Behavior Analysis

Based on the WHO report on the variant strain,combined with the current continuous COVID-19 outbreak,we know that the variant strain continually updates evolution until the outbreak is completely over,the variant strain is a great threat to humans,and inadvertently entraps the populace in a bathymetric fire.Therefore,learning from outbreaks caused by wild strains to reflect on the inadequacy of prevention and control measures and enhancing the means of outbreak control are essential.In this paper,we took the background of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province,and then constructed an infectious disease model with clinical typing structure by considering the influence of clinical typing structure of confirmed cases,epidemic prevention and treatment measures on COVID-19 transmission.The models were numerically simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on the outbreak data from January 24 to April 26,2020 to analyze the impact of prevention and control measures on the outbreak development.The analysis of model theoretical results found that the control of personnel mobility and centralized isolation and quarantine effectively reduced the infection rate of COVID-19;Related measures of community screening and return to work have played a crucial role in the resolution of the number of infected people,avoiding the risk of reinfection and providing some theoretical support for outbreak control decisions.