| In recent years,due to frequent extreme weather,financial crises,trade restrictions,and global pandemics,supply chain networks are becoming increasingly vulnerable to disruptions.Additionally,with the closer connections between companies in modern supply chain networks,an impact on one node can quickly spread throughout the entire network,causing amplified risks.The spread of disruption risks not only damages the operational capacity of companies in the network,but also jeopardizes the stability of the entire supply chain network.The segmentation of enterprise status helps to more accurately grasp operational capabilities,and has certain practical significance for enterprises to comprehensively identify interruption risks,grasp their own operational status,and formulate prevention and control strategies based on state transition laws.Distinguishing infected individuals into mild and severe infected individuals based on enterprise operational capabilities can more finely describe the transmission law of interruption risk in the supply chain network.The obtained law of interruption risk propagation not only helps enterprises to more clearly understand the operational status of themselves and their supply chain environment,but also provides a basis for enterprises to replace interruption risk management strategies in real time based on their status changes.This article first considered the impact of disruptions on the operational capabilities of node companies.Based on the degree of disruption,the operational capabilities of companies were divided into five states,and the impact of disruptions on the operational capabilities of node companies was simulated using a discrete-time Markov chain and a dynamic Bayesian network.The changes in node company operational capabilities over time under the impact of disruptions were determined,and the performance characteristics of companies under normal and extreme conditions were analyzed.It was clear that the focus of studying the impact of disruption risks on the operational capabilities of node companies is on their vulnerability and recoverability.Based on this,an infectious disease model was used to simulate the spread of disruption risks on the supply chain network.Companies were classified into five individual states-susceptible,latent,mild,severe,and immune-based on their operational capabilities.A new SHIR-DP risk propagation model is proposed,and the stability of the supply chain network is analyzed under two scenarios:one with a risk balance point and the other without.The results show that considering disruptions and disruption risk propagation from the perspective of operational capabilities can help to describe the propagation patterns of disruption risks in the supply chain network more delicately,and can provide a basis for companies to replace their disruption risk control strategies in real time according to their changing states.Based on the above qualitative and quantitative analyses,the article proposes disruption risk control strategies from both the macro network and micro node perspectives.This article focuses on the harm caused to a company’s operational capacity by interruption events,as well as the propagation of interruption risks in supply chain networks,which can trigger a chain reaction.Drawing on the fields of supply chain networks,interruptions,and interruption risk propagation,this article integrates theories such as Markov processes,dynamic Bayesian networks,and epidemic models.It studies supply chain interruption risk management from both macroscopic and microscopic perspectives,and introduces some innovative approaches on the basis of existing research. |
