Research On Econometric Model Of Influencing Factors Of Provincial Environmental Pollution

With the development of national economy,the problem of environmental pollution is becoming more and more prominent,and its harm to human health,industrial and agricultural production and climate change can not be ignored.Exploring environmental pollution and its influencing factors is of great significance to the control of environmental pollution,pollution reduction and emission reduction.Air pollution is an important aspect of environmental pollution.Limiting carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions and controlling PM2.5 indicators can control environmental pollution to a certain extent.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces（municipalities and autonomous regions,excluding Tibet）in mainland China from 2003 to 2018,this paper systematically explores the provincial environmental pollution and its influencing factors from three aspects:carbon dioxide（CO₂）pollution,PM2.5 pollution and sulfur dioxide（SO₂）pollution,and constructs a variety of econometric models for empirical analysis.The main work is as follows:（1）Based on the provincial panel data,explore the impact of foreign direct investment（FDI）and energy consumption on environmental pollution.The total amount of CO₂emissions,the average annual concentration of PM2.5 and the total amount of SO₂emissions are taken as environmental pollution indicators,and the energy consumption is characterized by the electricity consumption of the whole society.First,the variables are tested by panel stationarity test and cointegration test,and the panel vector autoregressive（PVAR）model is established to analyze the dynamic relationship among energy consumption,FDI and environmental pollution.Then the impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the influence of the change of each endogenous variable on the variable itself and other endogenous variables.Finally,the relationship between endogenous variables is analyzed by Granger causality test.The empirical results show that:in the short term,energy consumption will aggravate environmental pollution;FDI can promote energy consumption and affect environmental pollution.In the long run,FDI has a negative impact on SO₂and PM2.5 pollution,which may be the result of technology spillover;energy consumption has a positive effect on CO₂,PM2.5 and SO₂pollution.The three kinds of pollution have a great impact on themselves,and have their own accumulation effect and inertia behavior.There is a two-way Granger causality between FDI and three kinds of environmental pollution,one-way Granger causality between energy consumption and PM2.5 pollution,and two-way Granger causality between energy consumption and CO₂and SO₂pollution.（2）The effects of fiscal decentralization,industrial structure and population agglomeration on environmental pollution are investigated from the perspective of technological effect,structural effect and scale effect,and an expandable stochastic environmental impact assessment model（STIRPAT）with environmental Kuznets curve（EKC）is established.The best panel regression model is determined by Chow（LR）test and Hausman test,and the difference of the impact of the above factors on environmental pollution is explored from the national level and sub-regional level.The results show that:whether at the national level or sub-regional level,the degree of fiscal decentralization has a positive impact on environmental pollution,which proves that the degree of fiscal decentralization has a consistent impact on environmental pollution.The agglomeration effect of population agglomeration in the eastern region is consistent with the national level,which can inhibit CO₂pollution and promote SO₂and PM2.5 pollution;population agglomeration in the central region can reduce environmental pollution;and the western region will aggravate environmental pollution.The industrial structure shows different structural relationships to CO₂,SO₂and PM2.5 pollution at the national level and in the eastern,central and western regions.（3）There may be spatial spillover of environmental pollution.The spatial distribution map is used to directly reflect the changing trend and difference of environmental pollution in space.It is found that environmental pollution is mainly concentrated in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and other developed regions.Through the global and local Moran’s I correlation test,it is found that the environmental pollution has spatial correlation.Based on the two influencing factors of scientific and technological innovation and environmental regulation,a spatial measurement environmental pollution model is constructed,and four kinds of spatial weight matrices related to geography and economy are used to make an empirical analysis of the three spatial measurement models.The results show that environmental pollution has spatial spillover effect,which mainly shows the agglomeration characteristics of"high pollution-high pollution"and"low pollution-low pollution".Under the four kinds of weight matrix,scientific and technological innovation promotes CO₂pollution,while scientific and technological innovation inhibits PM2.5 pollution under the economic weight matrix;the relationship between environmental regulation and CO₂and SO₂pollution is inverted"U"type;and the relationship between environmental regulation and PM2.5 pollution is positive"U"type nonlinear relationship under the economic weight matrix.