Risk Assessment Method Of Weapon System-of-systems Based On Complex Network

Weapon system-of-systems(WSo S)is a complex dynamic system with multiple components.Due to the high complexity and uncertainty of WSo S,it is difficult for researchers to establish a network model that can accurately characterize WSo S.Therefore,the risk assessment of the WSo S network will also be limited to a certain extent and the assessment results are difficult to verify.Based on the complex network theory,this thesis focuses on the optimization of weapon equipment network model and risk assessment.The main research work and innovations of the thesis include:1)Aiming at the problem that existing models are difficult to accurately describe WSo S networks,this thesis designs a double-layer multiplexing network evolving model for weapons and equipment.Firstly,the equipment is mapped to different functional layers and then a multi-layer multiplexing network model is established.Secondly,after in-depth analysis of the node utilization,link loss rate,evolution time,overlap and degree correlation indicators of the multi-layer network,the multi-layer network aggregation is simplified into a double-layer multiplexing network model.Finally,based on the characteristics of WSo S network,the evolution algorithm of the double-layer multiplexing network is optimized,which improves the evolutionary efficiency of the network and the accuracy of identification of important components.2)Aiming at the problem that traditional WSo S risk assessment methods cannot comprehensively assess complex dynamic WSo S networks,this thesis combines the indicators based on topological features and the functional indicators of weapons and equipment on the basis of the above research results,and designs a WSo S risk assessment framework based on the multi-indicator fusion.Firstly,the relationship between topological indicators and functional indicators is analyzed,and then the hierarchy of risk indicators is constructed.The network are weighted according to the important physical parameters of weapons and equipment,and then the comprehensive indicators of the WSo S risk assessment are calculated based on the topology of the two-layer multiplexing network.Then,a WSo S risk assessment framework based on multi-indicator fusion is constructed.Through this framework,the equipment nodes and links in the WSo S network are evaluated for risk and the evaluation values are sorted.3)In this thesis,based on the visual platform for dynamic deduction of operational conceptual model built by the laboratory project,the research results of the Chapter 3 and4 are technically verified.Firstly,the function of the visualization platform is briefly described,and then a composite task of our WSo S network intercepting enemy attacks based on this platform is constructed.The operational effectiveness of WSo S network is evaluated through the deduction experiment of operational tasks,and the ranking results of operational effectiveness of equipment or links in WSo S network are obtained through the experiment,which verifies that the WSo S risk assessment framework based on multiindicator fusion is of practical significance to combat risk prevention and control.