Study On The Evaluation Of Indirect Economic Loss Of Earthquake Disaster Based On Input-output Model

Sichuan Province is located in the southwest of China.Due to its special geographical and natural environment,earthquake disasters occur frequently.After the earthquake,a large number of secondary derivative disasters,such as landslides,collapses,the economic development of the neighboring regions is greatly impacted by the frequent occurrence of debris flows and other such occurrences in the heavily impacted areas and countries,causing huge direct economic losses.The indirect economic loss is usually a multiplier of the direct economic loss,and affects the social economy in the form of "multiplier".The assessment of indirect economic losses caused by earthquake disasters is one of the important ways for disaster prevention,mitigation,recovery and reconstruction,and has important practical significance.The impact of indirect economic losses is long-term,so the assessment of indirect economic losses is an important basis for long-term response to the impact of disasters and targeted formulation of disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.This paper evaluates the input-output model and analyzes the indirect economic losses of various departments through the direct economic losses of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,infrastructure losses and social undertakings losses,providing a theoretical basis for the evaluation of the indirect economic losses of regional earthquakes,and providing some reference for the recovery and reconstruction of regional earthquakes.The main research results of this paper are as follows:(1)Based on a large number of domestic and foreign literature and book reading and relevant data survey,follow up the latest progress in the research methods of indirect economic loss assessment of disasters at home and abroad,and focus on the relevant summary and comment on the theory,assessment methods and new research trends of indirect economic loss of disasters.(2)Collect basic data such as the natural geographical environment of Wenchuan,Sichuan,the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake disaster and the direct economic losses of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,infrastructure and social undertakings caused by the earthquake,and evaluate the indirect economic losses caused by the losses of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,infrastructure and social undertakings.(3)Through the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan Province,the indirect economic losses of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,infrastructure and social sectors are verified based on consumption coefficient(technical stability),complete consumption coefficient(technical stability),distribution coefficient(stable distribution structure)and complete distribution coefficient(stable distribution structure).Through comparative analysis,the indirect economic losses assessed by each department in four cases are analyzed.