Modeling And Analysis Of Tuberculosis With Media Coverage And Inter Patch Influence

Brucellosis,caused by Brucella,poses a threat to the health of humans and animals,and severely affects the development of animal husbandry and the economy of pastoral areas.Hinggan League in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is an important traditional pastoral area in China,where animal husbandry has developed rapidly,but local brucellosis is severe.Studies have shown that animal transportation has a significant impact on the outbreak of animal diseases,but the impact of ovine transportation on the spread of brucellosis in Hinggan League’s six counties is not clear.Dynamic models are important tools for studying the spread of animal diseases,but there are still few studies on the effect of ovine transportation on the spread of brucellosis.Therefore,this article conducts the following research:Chapter 1 mainly introduces the research background,significance,and current research sta-tus of brucellosis in China and abroad.Chapter 2 investigated the prevalence of ovine brucellosis in Jalaid banner and Ulanhot City.Using a two-patch model,the mathematical expressions for the disease-free equilibrium point and the basic reproduction number of the model were obtained,and the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and the uniform persistence of the positive equilibrium point were proved.The model solution was fitted to the actual case numbers using Monte Carlo algorithm,and the basic reproduction number considering sheep transportation was found to be 1.0134,with separate basic reproduction numbers of 0.325 and 0.6915 for the two patches.Sensitivity analysis showed that controlling sheep transportation from Jalaid to Ulanhot is the most effective way to prevent brucellosis.Chapter 3 builds upon Chapter 2 by converting the two-patch model into an9)-patch mod-el to investigate the impact of ovine transportation on the spread of brucellosis in six regions of Hinggan League.Theoretically,we derived the mathematical expression for the disease-free e-quilibrium and proved its global stability and uniform persistence of the endemic equilibrium.In application,we fitted the model solution with actual case numbers using the least squares method and verified the good fitting effect through parameter uncertainty analysis.The overall basic repro-duction number of Hinggan League is 1.1076,and the individual basic reproduction numbers for the six regions are 0.0048,0.0379,0.7266,1.8938,0.0573,and 0.1139,respectively.This indicates that under current control measures,brucellosis will still prevail,and mutual ovine transportation between regions is one of the important reasons for the difficulty in controlling the disease.Sensi-tivity analysis of₀suggests that strengthening quarantine and control measures in Horqin Right Middle Banner is an urgent task.Ovine transportation is not always harmful,and in some regions,the outflow of sheep can actually inhibit the development of brucellosis.Furthermore,regardless of whether it is a two-patch or multi-patch model,improving the effectiveness of vaccine protection is the best prevention and control measure.