An Empirical Study On The Volatility Of Income In The Precious Metals Market Under The Influence Of The Epidemic

Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic,it has brought a huge impact to global public health and economic development,and also brought a major impact to the majority of investment precious metal enthusiasts.Since volatility phenomenon is commonly generated in financial time series,stochastic volatility model has also been widely used in practical applications.Compared with other random volatility,the SV model combining Bayesian method has more advantages in parameter estimation because it combines the prior information of parameters and the posterior distribution of parameters.Based on this,according to Bayesian theory,the standard SV model(SV-N)and thick-tailed SV model(SV-T)in the SV model family are selected,and Bayesian inference is carried out by Monte Carlo simulation(MCMC)based on Bayesian estimation under the Markov chain,and WINBUGS software is used to realize the empirical analysis of the volatility of the precious metal market income in the whole period.The parameter estimates were compared and analyzed,and the advantages and disadvantages of the model were compared and analyzed by using the DIC criterion.The results show that the thick-tail SV model(SV-T)has a good fitting effect on the income volatility of China’s precious metal market,and it can be seen that the income volatility of the gold market is higher than that of the silver market,that is,the risk of investing in gold is higher than that of silver.In this thesis,the whole period is divided into two periods,pre-epidemic and epidemic,and the SV-T model with the best fitting effect is used to study the income volatility of the precious metal market before the epidemic and during the epidemic.The results of the study show that investing in gold and silver before the epidemic and during the epidemic period has certain risks,but the risks before the epidemic are greater than those during the epidemic period;Gold and silver earnings volatility before and during the pandemic period has strong volatility persistence and spike tail resistance,but volatility persistence during the pandemic period is stronger than pre-pandemic volatility persistence.The difference is that the spike thick tail shown by the income fluctuation of the gold market before the epidemic is stronger than that during the epidemic period,and the peak thick tail shown by the income fluctuation of the silver market before the epidemic is weaker than that during the epidemic period.Studying the income volatility of China’s precious metals market under the influence of the epidemic is of certain significance for investors to grasp the income fluctuations of the precious metals market,better investment,and reduce investment risks.