Research On Guangxi GDP Forecast Based On Combination Forecast

It refers to the cumulative value of the product or labor of a country or region’s production activities in a period of time(annual or quarterly).It is also considered to be an important indicator to measure the development of national economy and judge the running state of macro-economy,as well as an important basis for the government to formulate economic development strategies and economic policies.Therefore,accurate analysis and prediction have important theoretical and practical significance." After completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and achieving the first centenary Goal,China embarked on a new journey toward the second centenary Goal of comprehensively building a modern socialist country during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.Therefore,under the new economic pattern,it is of more important guiding significance for Guangxi Autonomous Region to realize the high precision forecast of the total amount in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period.Different prediction models have different prediction accuracy and can provide different information,so the function of combining various single prediction models is to make comprehensive use of the information provided by various single prediction models to improve the prediction accuracy.Compared with the single prediction model,the combined prediction model can provide more comprehensive information,and at the same time,it can reduce the influence of some random factors on the low prediction accuracy of the single model.Firstly,Brown linear trend model,Holt linear trend model and model are selected for prediction.Then,the selected individual model is established based on arithmetic mean method,simple weighting method,reciprocal of variance method,mean square reciprocal method of four kinds of combination prediction model.Then,the prediction accuracy of these seven models is compared.Finally,the score is calculated by the good and bad distance scoring model,and the model with the highest score is selected for prediction.Based on the 45 years of Guangxi from 1978 to 2022,this paper analyzes the prediction of Guangxi by using the software,and compares the prediction effect of each model under the six evaluation index systems established.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the four combined prediction models is higher than that of the three single models,and the prediction accuracy of the combined prediction model based on the inverse variance method is higher than that of the other three combined prediction models.According to the combination prediction model based on inverse variance method,the total amount of Guangxi in 2023 to2025 is 27831,29639,31482 billion yuan,respectively.