A Quantitative Study On The Preventive Effect Of Traditional Chinese Medicine For COVID-19 Based On Dynamical Analysis

Infectious disease dynamics is a method of quantitative research of infectious disease theoretically.By numerical simulation,we can research the occurrence of disease,reveal transmission characteristic,predict future development trend,analyze the role of various prevention and control measures,find optimal strategy for epidemic prevention and provide theoretical basis for the formulation of epidemic prevention policy.Infectious disease often threatens human security and affect production and life of society,so it is necessary to analyze development process,transmission law of infectious disease and explore optimal strategy through dynamic model.Looking back at the historical process of the Chinese nation,Traditional Chinese Medicine(TCM)has played a pivotal role in the prevention of the epidemic.In the spring of 2021 and 2022,two epidemic rebound of COVID 19 occurred in Jilin Province.And in both cases,special populations,such as close contacts used TCM.Then we collected related data.The idea of this paper is to quantify and evaluate the effect of TCM on infectious disease prevention.The specific work of this article is as follows:(1)We develop dynamics models for related five and six compartments,and propose parameter which represents the effect of taking TCM to assess isolation,intervention of TCM and other preventive and control measures,and give derivations of regeneration numbers.(2)This paper takes the outbreak in Jilin Province as an example to quantify and evaluate the role of TCM,and the collected data is applied to the numerical simulation process.Based on the relationship between the relevant data and parameter,we estimate the parameter value we need.Then we carry out the numerical simulation to analyze the importance and role of TCM in the fight against the epidemic.According to two epidemic rebounds,we predict the impact of different TCM effects and the number of people taking TCM on epidemic prevention and control.Next,we separately record the peak of inpatient population and daily new confirmed cases and the time when the peak is reached,estimate and compare the number of Accumulative Medical Resource(AMR)and basic regeneration number.In the early stage of epidemic prevention and control,the use of TCM for special groups such as close contacts and taking isolation measure play an important role in the process of epidemic prevention.Based on the evaluation,it is concluded that the use of TCM has shortened the process of preventing and controlling the epidemic,reduced the peak of inpatient population and daily new confirmed cases,and also reduced medical resources and significantly reduced the economic burden on the country.Taking isolation measure prevent large-scale outbreak and reduce financial and medical losses.