| The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is an important measure in the layout of the "Belt and Road" initiative.As a host country,Pakistan’s development situation has attracted much attention.The power shortage restricts the development of Pakistan.Only by grasping the electricity consumption of Pakistan can it provide better services for the development and construction of the country.However,the official electricity consumption data are mainly at the provincial and national scales,and there are limitations such as lack of spatial information.Therefore,this paper uses nighttime light remote sensing data to estimate the electricity consumption of Pakistan,and analyzed its spatial distribution pattern and temporal and spatial changes,so as to understand the development status of Pakistan.Combined with the power projects invested and constructed by China in Pakistan in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,study China’s contribution to Pakistan in the development of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,and provide suggestions for subsequent development and construction.Finally,the impact of the blockade policy on Pakistan’s electricity consumption under the new crown pneumonia epidemic was analyzed.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)Geospatially weighted regression models(GTWR)are more accurate in estimating electricity consumption.GTWR was selected,which comprehensively considers the spatial-temporal correlation.The electricity consumption of Pakistan was estimated by using the nighttime light remote sensing data of NASA black marble products in the United States,and the spatial data set of electricity consumption in Pakistan from 2013 to 2020 was obtained.The average relative error of GTWR estimation is 6.41%,which is lower than the linear regression model commonly used in other studies,and has higher accuracy,which can more accurately estimate the real electricity consumption.(2)Spatial distribution pattern and spatiotemporal changes of electricity consumption in Pakistan: From 2013 to 2020,Pakistan’s total electricity consumption increased,with an average annual increase of 346.1 million Kwh.From a spatial point of view,the distribution of electricity consumption in Pakistan was uneven,the electricity consumption in the east was higher than that in the west.The spatial distribution direction was obvious,mainly in the northeast-southwest direction.Most of Pakistan is a non-lighted area,and the electricity consumption level of the rest of the region is mainly low,and the electricity consumption had increased from west to east in 8 years.In terms of temporal and spatial changes,the trend types of electricity consumption in Pakistan were mainly characterized by no obvious change type and slow growth type.The center of gravity of electricity consumption moved along the southwest-northeast direction in Punjab Province.(3)The commissioning of the power station projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor had contributed to the growth of Pakistan’s electricity consumption.Provinces with power stations had higher power consumption,and the power consumption of cities near the power stations had increased significantly.The growth of electricity consumption is not only related to the number of power stations,but also closely related to the type of power generation.The input-to-output ratio of clean energy power stations was 1.77,which was higher than that of coal-fired power stations of 1.39,with higher cost performance and power generation efficiency.(4)The COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant impact on electricity consumption in Pakistan.In the early stage of the epidemic,power consumption dropped significantly,and as the epidemic stabilized,power consumption gradually returned to the pre-epidemic consumption level.From a spatial point of view,the impact on provinces and major cities with large electricity consumption was greater. |
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