| Land cover change has an impact on the value of regional ecosystem services value(ESV),which in turn has an impact on the regional ecological environment and high-quality economic development.Based on land use data,grain yield data and grain price data in the Taizi River Basin,this thesis uses the equivalent factor method to calculate the ecosystem service value in the Taizi River Basin from 1990 to 2020,and analyzes the spatial distribution law and influencing factors of ecosystem service value in the Taizi River Basin by combining spatial autocorrelation and geographic detectors,and predicts the future land use scenarios in the Taizi River Basin and calculates the ecosystem service value in the Taizi River Basin in 2030 and2040.Provide reliable support for the future sustainable development of the Taizi River Basin.The main findings are as follows:(1)From 1990 to 2020,various land use types in the Taizi River Basin changed to varying degrees.The area of water and construction land increased,and the area of arable land,forest land,grassland and unused land decreased.The results of land conversion in the Taizi River Basin show that cultivated land is the type with the most area transferred out,and construction land is the type with the largest area transferred in.(2)From 1990 to 2020,the total ESV of the Taizi River Basin showed a downward trend,with a total decrease of 1.174 billion yuan,a decrease of 3.54%;Among the land use types,forest land provides the largest amount of ESV.The results of ESV flow analysis in the Taizi River Basin show that the conversion of grassland,forest land and water area to other land use types decreases with ESV,and the conversion of cultivated land,construction land and unused land to other land types increases with ESV.The distribution pattern of ESV in the Taizi River Basin showed positive spatial autocorrelation as a whole.(3)The results of geographic detectors showed that altitude had the greatest influence on ESV in single-factor detection from 1990 to 2020.In interaction factor detection,the interaction between altitude and other factors is significantly stronger than the effect inside a single factor.(4)The FLUS forecast results show that in 2030 and 2040,the area of arable land,forest land,grassland and unused land will show a downward trend,and the area of water area and construction land will show an increasing trend,among which forest land is the most reduced type of land;The area of water increased the most.Total ESV decreased by 1,914 million,or 5.98%. |
