The Financial Revenue Analysis Of Henan Province Based On Bayesian Structural Equation Model Under The New Index System

The economic base determines the superstructure.As the main source of national income,the study of fiscal revenue is of great significance to both the government and the people.By consulting and studying some related literature on financial income,we find that with the change of social factors and social structure,we can not measure the economic development only by some traditional economic indicators,it is necessary to seek a new evaluation method and system,so the structural equation model is used to analyze the change of the internal structure of local fiscal revenue and explore the internal relationship of the growth of fiscal revenue in Henan province.Firstly,to determine the index system,for the reliability does not pass the index system,variable selection,select some of the measurement indicators,here in the selection of variables,using linear model-based stepwise regression and adaptive Lasso,and stability selection based on the stability path(considering three penalty functions: Lasso,SCAD,MCP),for all the selected variable results,the scalar and potential variables of the indicator system with the best reliability are selected.Secondly,the traditional structural equation model is tested,and it is found that the traditional structural equation model can not keep all paths,and the model test is difficult to pass.Then,given a priori distribution,using Bayesian structural equation model,a posteriori distribution is calculated by given a priori distribution,using MCMC algorithm to complete.Finally,the algorithm is evaluated by convergence statistics,path coefficient convergence graph,autocorrelation graph to evaluate the convergence,randomness and stability of the algorithm.Finally,according to the result,among all the path coefficients,the path coefficient of policy’s influence on fiscal revenue is the largest,and the path coefficient of national economy’s influence on policy is the second,compared with the direct impact of national economy on fiscal revenue,more through the impact of consumption and then affect fiscal revenue,so to improve the level of fiscal revenue in Henan province,aiming at the Bayesian structural equation model of the modeling results,the following suggestions are put forward:(1)put policy in the first place and make it people-centered;(2)attach importance to the national economy and promote the growth of fiscal revenue;(3)expand effective investment and avoid blindly stimulating consumption.On the whole,the analysis of the structure of the financial revenue in Henan province has certain reference significance for realizing the steady growth of the financial revenue and promoting the high-quality development of the local economy in Henan province.