| At present,research on drought mainly focuses on meteorological drought,agricultural drought and hydrological drought,and less attention is paid to socioeconomic drought.However,socioeconomic drought involves both water supply and water demand,which will have a direct impact on socioeconomics,and is the core link of precise drought prevention and response.With the development of urbanization in our country,the population gathers in cities,and the centralized water demand leads to the tense situation of urban water use,which in turn has adverse effects on social economy.Therefore,it is urgent to study the accurate characterization,spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of socioeconomic drought in order to provide scientific and technological support for precise drought prevention and mitigation of adverse effects of socioeconomic drought.This paper takes the Yellow River Basin with frequent droughts and fragile ecological environment as the research object.First,it verifies and extends the grid water supply data of the Yellow River Basin,calculates the grid water demand data of the Yellow River Basin,and analyzes the characteristics of water supply and demand in the Yellow River Basin.The socioeconomic drought index was constructed and verified,and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of socioeconomic drought in the Yellow River Basin were analyzed from the perspective of sequences and events;then,a propagation model was constructed based on the conditional probability of the Copula function,and the propagation time and time from meteorological drought to socioeconomic drought were calculated.Trigger threshold;Finally,the driving force of the spatio-temporal evolution of socioeconomic drought and the propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to socioeconomic drought was identified.The main research results obtained are as follows:(1)Based on the Yellow River Basin Water Resources Bulletin to verify the gridded water supply data of the Yellow River Basin,the linear trend method and the leave-one-out method are used to extend the data,and the quota method is used to calculate the gridded water demand data of the Yellow River Basin,revealing the water supply and demand of the Yellow River Basin trend.The relative error between the gridded water supply data and the Yellow River Basin Water Resources Bulletin data is mostly below 10%,and the relative error between the extended data and the Yellow River Basin Water Resources Bulletin data is less than 5%,and the results are reasonable;The water supply shows an overall increasing trend,among which the industrial water supply has the most obvious increasing trend;the water demand generally shows a decreasing trend,and the industrial water supply is similar,but the domestic and agricultural water supply shows an increasing trend;except for some areas along the Weihe River,the water supply in the Yellow River Basin can basically meet the water demand.(2)The socio-economic drought index was created by using the non-parametric kernel density estimation method,and its rationality and superiority were verified by combining the disaster loss data and the existing drought index,and then Man-Kendall trend test and R/S rescaled range analysis were used The spatio-temporal evolution law of social and economic drought in the Yellow River Basin revealed by the method and the run-length theory.The results show that the drought duration and intensity extracted by the socioeconomic drought index based on the nonparametric kernel density estimation method have a good correlation with the disaster loss data,and can better identify the characteristics of socioeconomic drought in the Yellow River Basin;the socioeconomic drought in the Yellow River Basin The index shows an increasing trend,and the sustainability is strong.Except for the Weihe River in summer,most of the other grids show an increasing trend,and the proportion of socio-economic drought area decreases year by year,especially in the non-flood season;the number of drought events in the upper and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin is small,the average duration is long,and the average intensity is small;the number of drought events in the middle reaches is large,the average duration is short,and the average intensity is the largest.(3)A drought propagation model was established based on the conditional probability of the Copula function,and the standardized precipitation index was used to represent the meteorological drought,and the propagation time and trigger threshold of meteorological drought to socioeconomic drought were calculated.In the process of spreading from different levels of meteorological drought to socioeconomic drought,the higher the level of meteorological drought,the greater the probability of transmission and the shorter the transmission time;The probability of socio-economic drought is higher,followed by moderate drought,and the lowest probability of light drought and severe drought;in the process of spreading from high-level meteorological drought to low-level socio-economic drought,severe drought,extreme drought and meteorological drought to moderate drought The probability of socioeconomic drought is high,and the probability of spreading socioeconomic drought is low when it reaches the level of light drought;the maximum trigger thresholds of socioeconomic drought from meteorological drought to light drought level,moderate drought level,severe drought level,and extreme drought level are-0.4 and-0.4,respectively.0.9,-1.4,-1.9,the higher the level of socio-economic drought,the smaller the trigger threshold.(4)Geographic detectors were used to quantify the influence factors of single-factor and two-factor interactions on the evolution of socio-economic drought and the spread of meteorological drought to socio-economic drought,thereby probing the driving force of socioeconomic drought.Among the single factors,the effects of meteorological factors and human activities are greater than those of the underlying surface factors,and the interaction between the underlying surface factors and other factors is significantly enhanced;the interaction between factors is often stronger than that of a single factor,and the interaction between factors In the interaction,except for the interaction type between GDP,rural population,urban population and wind speed,which is a two-factor enhancement,the others are mostly nonlinear enhancement;the effect of rural population is generally greater than that of urban population in single-factor and two-factor interactions. |
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