Impact Of Climate Change On Climate Suitability Of Winter Wheat In Jiangsu Provinc

Jiangsu Province is one of the main planting areas of winter wheat in China.Climate change has a significant impact on the growth of winter wheat,so it is of great significance to study the climate resources and suitability of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province under the background of climate change.Based on the daily meteorological data in winter wheat growing season at 65 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province in the past 40 years(1980-2019)and the meteorological data under the SSP2-4.5 scenario in the CMIP6 scenario model comparison plan of the future climate scenario model,this study analyzes the time series change characteristics by using data processing software,constructs the temperature,sunshine,precipitation and comprehensive suitability model of winter wheat growing season in Jiangsu Province on the basis of the climate suitability function model,and uses geographic information system(GIS)for comprehensive analysis.The results showed that:(1)Variation characteristics of climate resources during the growing period of winter wheat in Jiangsu ProvinceThe overall heat resource division of winter wheat in each growth period shows a trend with northern region < central region < southern region,the lowest is located in Lianyungang,Xuzhou and other northern parts,the average temperature of the whole growing period is about 8 °C,the highest is located in Suzhou,Wuxi and other southern parts,the average temperature is about 11 °C,with the change of time,the average temperature throughout the growing period of winter wheat is gradually rising,but the high temperature in southern Jiangsu during the tillering-wintering period may not be conducive to the vernalization of winter wheat;The overall distribution of precipitation resources is in the order of northern< central< southern,the least is observed in Lianyungang,Xuzhou and other northern parts,the average total precipitation in the growing period is about 240 mm,the most is observed in Suzhou,Wuxi and other southern parts,the average total precipitation in the growing period is 560 mm,with the change of time,except for the rejuvenation-jointing stage and jointing-earing stage,the precipitation in other growing periods is gradually rising;The distribution of overall sunshine resources is in the order of south< central < north,the least is detected in Suzhou,Wuxi,Changzhou and other southern parts,the average total sunshine hours in the growing period is 1054.3h,and the average total sunshine hours in the growing period in Xuzhou,Lianyungang and Suqian is1361.6h.(2)Analysis of climatic suitability of winter wheat growth period in Jiangsu ProvinceThe temperature suitability of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province shows a significant upward trend with time,with an upward trend of 0.015/10 a,and the suitability index is generally high,showing a pattern of high south and low north.The suitability of precipitation gradually increased with the change of time,and the upward trend reachs0.005/10 a,and the suitability index shows the pattern with high value in the south and low value in the north.The suitability of sunshine gradually decreased with the change of time,and the downward trend reachs 0.007/10 a,and the suitability index shows the pattern with high value in the north and low value in the south.The comprehensive suitability shows a slow upward trend with time,with an upward trend of 0.005/10 a,and the suitability index shows the pattern with high value in the south.At present,the most suitable areas for winter wheat planting are mainly distributed in southern Jiangsu,mainly in Suzhou,Wuxi and other parts in Jiangsu Province.(3)The impact of future climate change on the climate suitability of winter wheat in Jiangsu ProvinceIn the future,the average temperature of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province will increase significantly with the overall trend being 0.5℃/10 a with climate change,and the temperature suitability index will be generally better,and the large value area of the temperature suitability index will be mainly distributed in the southern region of Jiangsu Province.The cumulative precipitation in the province showed an overall trend being4.4mm/10 a with climate change,and the precipitation suitable area will be located in the southern region of Jiangsu Province,while the suitability in the northern region will be still low.In the future,the comprehensive climate suitability index of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province will obviously increase,and southern Jiangsu will be higher than that in northern Jiangsu,but the overall distribution will be relatively uniform,and the difference will be not large.