Improved Multivariate Grey Model And Its Application In Carbon Emission Predictio

China as a carbon power,carbon emissions increase rapidly.The carbon reduction policy of China has a far-reaching influence on global carbon emissions reduction activities.Carbon emissions is a complex problem affected by many factors.It is important to identify its key influencing factors and predict its future development trend.Because the research sample has the characteristics of little data and poor information,this paper will use the grey system theory to solve the related problems.Firstly,this paper analyzes from two aspects of theory and application,which lays a research foundation for the optimization of multivariate grey model and its application in carbon emission prediction.In the theoretical level,the modeling mechanism and improvement method of multivariate grey prediction model are deeply analyzed,and the present situation and theory of carbon emissions are practically studied in the application level.This paper holds that multivariate grey model is very suitable for regional carbon emissions prediction research.Secondly,in view of the diversity and complexity of carbon emission factors,this paper introduces metabolic ideas,new information adjustment operators and nonlinear parameters on the basis of multivariate grey prediction model MGM(1,m),and constructs metabolism multivariate grey M-MGM(1,m|λ)model,MGM(1,m|λ,γ)model considering new information priority and nonlinear multivariate MGM(1,m,N|γ)model.Different carbon emission data cases are selected for specific application and analysis.The results show that compared with the traditional model,the new model has better simulation effect and higher prediction accuracy in carbon emission prediction.The new models fully exploit the hidden information of new data and expand the application scope of traditional models,which is a successful optimization of traditional multivariable grey prediction models.Finally,according to China’s carbon emission status,key influencing factors and predicted trends,this paper get the corresponding management enlightenment,which will contribute to China’s carbon governance and help China achieve the goal of double carbon.