Analysis Of Blowout Impact Factors On Offshore Drilling Platform And Its System Dynamics Simulation Study

Blowout is a catastrophic accident in offshore drilling operations,and it poses a serious threat to the operational safety of an offshore platform.Therefore,it is important to study blowouts to prevent and control similar accidents on offshore platforms.This article takes the case of the "Deep Water Horizon" drilling platform in the US Gulf of Mexico as an example.Based on the application of System Dynamics(SD)method,the safety level analysis model of ocean drilling platform and the probability prediction model of blowout accident are constructed.The research on safety level and blowout accident probability prediction is of great significance for improving the overall safety of offshore drilling platforms.The main contents of this research are as follows:(1)Analysis of impact factors of blowout accidents on offshore drilling platformsBy sorting out and analyzing typical blowout accident cases of offshore drilling platforms,the influencing factors of blowout accidents are divided into five categories,and the causal loop diagram of the blowout accidents of offshore drilling platforms is constructed,and the causal relationships among the blowout accident influencing factors are sorted out;the influencing factors of blowout accidents on offshore drilling platforms was analyzed by using the interpreted structural model method,and the hierarchical structure diagram of the blowout accident influencing factors was drawn to determine the surface direct influencing factors,the intermediate indirect influencing factors and the deep-level fundamental influencing factors of the marine drilling platform blowout accident To lay the foundation for further analysis of blowout accidents on offshore drilling platforms based on system dynamics.(2)Build safety level analysis and blowout accident probability prediction model of offshore drilling platformBased on the basic theory of system dynamics,the safety level of the offshore drilling platform was simulated and analyzed,and the causality diagram of the safety level of the offshore drilling platform was established.On this basis,the simulation software Vensim was used to construct the analysis model of the safety level of the offshore drilling platform;Based on the analysis of literature related to blowout accidents,draw a fault tree for blowout accidents on offshore drilling platforms,and use software Vensim to construct a probability prediction model for blowout accidents on offshore drilling platforms.(3)Safety level analysis of the "Deep Water Horizon" drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico and the prediction of the probability of blowout accidentsAccording to the specific situation and expert analysis of the "Deep Water Horizon" drilling platform in the US Gulf of Mexico,the Vensim software was used to simulate the safety level analysis model of the platform,and the development trend of the safety level of the platform over time was obtained;The Vensim software was used to simulate the probability prediction model of the blowout accident of the platform,and the time-varying probability of blowout accident of the "Deep Water Horizon" drilling platform in the US Gulf of Mexico was obtained0205499.The safety level analysis of the "Deep Water Horizon" drilling platform and the comparative analysis of the blowout accident probability prediction results verify the applicability of the offshore drilling platform safety level analysis model and the blowout accident probability prediction model to the "Deep Water Horizon" drilling platform in the Gulf of Mexico.Finally,the improvement measures to prevent blowout accidents of offshore drilling platform are proposed.