Temporal And Spatial Correlation Analysis Of Household Financial Debt Behavior In China

In recent years,the amount of household financial debt has increased year by year and the growth rate is amazing.In order to further construct the new development pattern of "double cycle",it is very important to adjust the structure of household economy,especially the structure of household financial debt.Related studies have found that,in addition to various observable factors affecting household financial debt behavior,household financial literacy can also influence household financial debt behavior by influencing their judgments of their own situation,risk preferences,and economic situation.Meanwhile,spatial and temporal differences may also have an impact on the heterogeneity of household financial debt behavior.In terms of space,China has a vast territory,and different provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities have different economic development conditions,different financial development degrees,different financial knowledge popularization efforts,and different family financial literacy and family financial debt behaviors.In terms of time,in the past decade,measures such as the structural reform of the financial supply side and financial openness have led to changes in the financial literacy of the same province,autonomous region,and municipality,as well as changes in household financial debt behavior.Therefore,it is crucial to study the temporal and spatial correlation of household financial debt behavior.Based on the above reasons,this paper takes the intention and scale of household financial debt as the research object,and studies the temporal changes and spatial differences of household financial debt behavior from the perspective of time and space.Firstly,this paper sorts out and reviews previous studies,defines core concepts such as household financial debt behavior and financial literacy,and expounds relevant theoretical basis.Secondly,with the help of the data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)from 2013 to 2019,descriptive statistical analysis was conducted on observable factors such as gender and income and the indicative factors of latent variables of family financial literacy.Thirdly,a novel two-part latent variable spatio-temporal factor model is constructed,relevant hypotheses are proposed,and the optimal alternative model is selected.Then,the paper makes an empirical study on the temporal and spatial correlation of household financial debt behaviors in 25 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities,and how the change of financial literacy influences household financial debt behaviors in time and space.Finally,this paper puts forward targeted policy suggestions from the perspectives of time and space to ensure the appropriateness of household financial debt behavior.The empirical results show that household financial debt behavior has significant spatial and temporal correlation.On the one hand,from the perspective of space,the household debt intention and debt scale of provinces and cities are close to the neighboring provinces,but there are differences.On the whole,the intention of basic debt decreases from households in western regions to households in eastern regions,while the scale of basic debt increases from households in western regions to households in eastern regions.The influence of family financial literacy on family financial debt behavior is also different in different provinces and cities.On the other hand,from the perspective of time,households’ willingness to hold basic financial liabilities is stable at a relatively low level,while the scale of basic financial liabilities fluctuates and rises.The positive effect of family financial literacy on the scale of family financial debt in different provinces and cities is gradually enhanced,and the influence on family financial debt intention is different in time,and the difference is gradually reduced with the change of time.