| Since the Industrial Revolution,with the expansion of the scale of human production activities,global greenhouse gas emissions have risen sharply,resulting in global warming and seriously threatening the human living environment.In order to promote the sustainable development of human society,it is necessary to take effective measures to deal with the problem of climate deterioration,and the primary goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.As a major economy in the world,China plays an important role in the global efforts to tackle climate change.To this end,China is exploring market-oriented channels for carbon emission reduction,establishing pilot carbon emission rights trading,and gradually establishing a national unified carbon market.However,China’s carbon emission trading pilot started slowly,the unified carbon emission trading market was established late,the price formation mechanism of the national unified carbon emission trading market was imperfect,and at the beginning of its establishment,it faced the problem of insufficient market effectiveness,and the price of carbon emission trading fluctuated greatly and frequently,which seriously affected the enthusiasm of traders to participate in trading.Finally,it will affect the implementation effect of China’s carbon emission reduction policy.Therefore,in order to stabilize the price of carbon emission trading market to enhance the enthusiasm of traders to participate,effectively promote the implementation of China’s carbon emission reduction policy,and achieve the goal of "double carbon",it is necessary to effectively identify the factors affecting the price of carbon emission trading.This paper takes Guangdong carbon emission trading price as the research object,and discusses the influencing factors of Guangdong carbon emission trading price.Firstly,the research progress of carbon emission trading price at home and abroad is reviewed.On this basis,it defines the concepts of "double carbon" target,carbon emission right,carbon emission right trading price,and expounds the public goods and externality theory,Coase theory and property right theory,environmental governance theory and green finance theory.Secondly,the current situation and price volatility of carbon emission trading in Guangdong under the background of "dual carbon" are analyzed.At the empirical level,the paper first identified the influencing factors of carbon emission trading price in Guangdong in theory,and then used vector autoregressive model to empirically test the identified factors,and used impulse response and variance decomposition to verify the validity of the model.Then the model predicts the trading price of carbon emission rights,and then analyzes the effect of the model prediction to test the rationality of the model.The research shows that:(1)The market scale of Guangdong Carbon emission Rights Exchange is constantly expanding,and a large number of institutional investors participate in trading activities as indirect emission reduction enterprises,which promotes the development of Guangdong carbon market,but it still faces challenges such as trading speculation,frequent price fluctuations and malicious trading by institutions.(2)The price of KCFC is affected by supply-side factors such as carbon emission quota and certified voluntary emission reduction,as well as demand-side factors such as energy market price,financial market activities and air quality.(3)It is found through the VAR model.Historical prices,energy prices,financial market activities and air quality have different degrees of influence on carbon emission trading prices in Guangdong.After variance decomposition,the historical data of carbon emission trading price in Guangdong has the highest contribution,and other factors have the strongest to the weakest influence on carbon emission trading price from coal price index to CSI 300 index and Guangdong Air Quality Index,respectively.The carbon emission trading price in Shanghai has the least contribution. |
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