Identifying Priority Conservation Areas For Theaceae Biodiversity In China Through Climate Change Modeling

The spatial distribution of species diversity is a prevailing issue in macro-ecology and biogeography.Understanding the geographical distribution pattern of species diversity alongside its influencing factors constitutes a crucial area of interest in biodiversity research.As renowned angiospermaceae plant in China,Theaceae is widely distributed in tropical and subtropical forests,boasting of rich endemicity.Examining how climate change affects the spatial pattern and endemic center of Theaceae plants in China would be beneficial in the exploration of climate change’s impact on the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest’s flora in China.Subsequently,this study could contribute to the formulation of effective protection strategies.The main steps of this study are as follows: Firstly,data on the distribution of 123 wild Theaceae plants in China were collected.Using species distribution models and two diffusion scenarios,potential distribution areas for the Theaceae plants were simulated.Additionally,we calculated biodiversity spatial pattern indices,including species richness(SR)and phylogenetic diversity(PD).Secondly,we analyzed the driving factors of the spatial patterns of species richness and phylogenetic diversity using generalized linear models and spatial synchronous autoregressive models.Lastly,we classified and analyzed the endemic centers of Theaceae plants using CANAPE.Our results indicate that:(1)the hotspot of Theaceae plant diversity is located in the southern region of China.Furthermore,under different climate change scenarios,the distribution ranges of most species tend to shrink,while a few species show an expanding trend.(2)The primary environmental factor influencing the spatial arrangement of Theaceae plants is annual precipitation,undeniably demonstrating that rainfall remains the primary driving force determining the distribution of these plants,and Theaceae plants are sensitive to extreme low temperature and temperature stability.(3)The endemic centers of Theaceae plants are predominantly located in Southwest China,with mixed endemic centers accounting for the largest proportion,with the advent of climate change,there will be a gradual expansion of endemic centers.In the absence of dispersal,the distribution of endemic centers is notably more concentrated.These findings can prove instrumental in enhancing the scientific and efficacious protective measures undertaken to shield Theaceae plants from adverse environmental disruptions.Based on the aforementioned conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward for the conservation of Theaceae plants: In constructing the species distribution area using the species distribution model,increasing dispersal restrictions to eliminate the over-fitting effect;Climate sensitivity can be utilized to further assess the protective value of protected areas and newly expanded regions;Since the spread of Theaceae plants outside their origin is not dominant in the historical process of species differentiation,In-situ preservation can be implemented in existing hot spots.These conservation guidelines could greatly aid in optimizing and adjusting current protected areas,as well as in responding to future climate changes.