A Scenario Prediction Study On Carbon Emission Peaking In Eight Major Industrial Sectors In China Based On DPSO-BP Model

Human economic activities have led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and serious haze pollution.Extreme events have occurred frequently in recent years,which are all caused by global warming.Many countries around the world have successively put forward the goals of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality".As the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide,China has made a commitment to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,and is actively promoting the development path of carbon emission reduction.In order to further deepen the concept of sustainable development and low-carbon economy,and to achieve the peak by 2030 as soon as possible,the State Council proposed in the Action Plan for Carbon Peaking by 2030 that industry is directly related to the overall carbon peaking time and peak size of the country.The industrial sector should accelerate the transformation to green and low-carbon,move towards high-quality development,and strive to take the lead in achieving carbon peaking.Different industrial carbon peaking paths will lead to different carbon peaking times and peaks.So in order to successfully achieve carbon peaking by 2030,scientific,reasonable and effective carbon peaking paths should be implemented according to specific industries.At present,there are few papers on industrial sectors as research objects,and even fewer papers on predicting the peak time and peak value of industrial sectors,so it is necessary and innovative to predict the peak time and peak value of industrial sectors.This thesis takes sustainable development theory,low-carbon economy theory and externality as the theoretical basis,and takes eight industrial sub-sectors as the research objects.Firstly,we analyze the trend of the measured carbon emissions of the industry as a whole and the carbon emissions of industrial sub-sectors from 2000 to 2019.Then,the seven carbon emission influencing factors selected from three aspects of demographic factors,economic development and energy consumption are analyzed in detail.The ridge regression results of eight industrial sub-sectors are analyzed empirically to screen the predictor variables for forecasting carbon emission.Then a double-improved particle swarm optimization BP neural network model(DPSO-BP)is constructed to predict the carbon emissions of eight industries from 2020 to 2050 by setting three scenarios: high energy consumption scenario,baseline scenario and low carbon scenario.On this basis,we analyze whether each industrial sector can achieve the 2030 peak target under the three scenarios,and further analyze the emission reduction potential and the risk of increasing emissions of each sector.Finally,we put forward targeted policy recommendations to provide reference for China’s industrial sector to reach the peak as soon as possible.Based on the above research,the findings of this thesis are as follows: First,the carbon emission measurement results show that the carbon emissions of the industry as a whole and the eight major industrial sectors show local peaks,and the industrial sectors with the most carbon emissions are the power industry,the steel industry,and the cement industry,so the achievement of industrial carbon peaks should focus on how to achieve carbon emission management in these three sectors,otherwise it will affect the overall industrial peak time and peak.Secondly,according to the results of ridge regression,urbanization does not have a direct and significant impact on carbon emissions from extractive industries,and the rapid development of urbanization is not the direct cause of carbon emissions from extractive industries,but an indirect feedback to extractive industries through other industries.Third,the carbon emission projection results of the eight industries show that all sectors can achieve the peak target by 2030 under the low carbon scenario,with the power industry achieving the peak by 2025 at the earliest;while under the baseline scenario,only the extractive industry cannot achieve the peak target by 2030,while the remaining seven industries can achieve the peak target by 2030;under the high energy consumption scenario,all eight industries cannot achieve the peak target by 2030.Under the high energy consumption scenario,all eight industries cannot achieve the 2030 peak target.Fourth,the extractive industry,light industry,textile industry,and petroleum industry are low emission reduction potential-low incremental risk industries,the chemical industry and cement industry are low emission reduction potential-high incremental risk industries,the steel industry is high emission reduction potential-high incremental risk industry,and the power industry is high emission reduction potential-low incremental risk industry.Therefore,in the next ten years,the key industries for carbon emission reduction are iron and steel industry and power industry,and the key industries for carbon emission prevention and control are chemical industry,cement industry and iron and steel industry.